Tuesday, July 27, 2021

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    Accumulation phase continues for Bitcoin as price struggles to regain lost ground

    The price of Bitcoin failed to exceed last Monday the ceiling of 29,640 euros and is now developing a clear pattern of wyckoff accumulation. As a result, the price has been consolidating for the space of almost two months in the area of 26,400-32,300 euros, with such a thin range where anything could happen.

    Currently at the time of writing, the price is trading at €27,145 according to Cointelegraph’s price indicator, with a daily gain of +1.27%.

    As we can see in the table above, very contrary to what has historically been the month of July for bitcoin, its price has contracted by -15.12%.

    All of this is happening despite the bullish signs that occurred at the beginning of the month, such as the purchase of 60,000 BTC by large entities (whale bitcoin) that pushed a price recovery above €29,640 on July 4.

    Although it is too early to point out that the price of the main reference asset of the cryptocurrency market may end in the red this month, the path so far resembles the two big losses that bitcoin had historically in July 2011 and 2019.

    If this course follows the price of bitcoin, July 2021 would become the 4th. occasion where the price of BTC would close in losses in the last 10 years.

    What to expect from Bitcoin for the second half of July?

    As we have always clarified, the cryptocurrency market is very volatile and easily manipulated by large entities, because of the small size in billions of euros compared to the traditional stock market.

    So making an approximation in such a small amount of time (15 days) can be a Russian roulette. However, despite this, it is possible to make some approximations of the future behavior of the asset, based both on the fundamental analysis and on the signals of the main technical indicators.

    As for the fundamentals, these remain intact to this day.. Contrary to what we might think, some news around the ecosystem beyond China FUD regarding mining and manipulation coming from personal accounts of a CEO on Twitter of successful companies, have generated a positive feeling in recent days regarding the Bitcoin ecosystem and of course in its price. Let’s review some:

    • The most recent and that propelled the price of bitcoin to a recovery in the last few hours comes from the sources of one of the major banks around the world: Bank of America. As reported by Cointelegraph, this institution had authorized the trading of Bitcoin futures.

    • PayPal announced on Thursday that it had increased the cryptocurrency purchase limit for certain US-based customers from USD 20,000 to USD 100,000 per week.

    • The reorganization of China’s miners into new locations, adapting to the new rules of the game are seen as bullish signals in the medium term, as an increase in the hash rate can be expected to pick up once these key ecosystem players are established.

    • New on-chain data from Glassnode suggest that the area between 26,253 and 28,794 euros is the largest volume group made since the levels of €10K

    • There is an excess of leverage acting against traders in ‘short’ according to glassnode’s latest data on perpetual futures over the past two months.

    The above, are just some of the positive arguments that they revolve around the market-leading cryptocurrency for a frank price recovery in the medium term.

    If we review the chart formed in the last month by the BTC/EUR pair, we can see that it perfectly matches the Wyckoff pattern: accumulation, upward trend, distribution and downtrend.

    As we can see, we have already come out of this cycle, and what seems to be happening again with the main cryptocurrency is a new Wyckoff cycle, where the big players (whales) are taking a lot of BTC into cold wallets (see btc exit numbers off the exchanges) in these two months, pushing the price as low as possible to buy cheap and accumulate.

    As we have mentioned on other occasions, the cycles are repetitive, so it is not surprising that the price of bitcoin coming out of this accumulation phase repeats the upward trend so that a distribution to new ATH occurs later, as this indicates author in Seeking Alpha.

    Upside and bears

    However, despite the optimistic ‘trend’ in the medium term, the outlook for the remainder of July seems to be different. Some respected traders insist on pointing out that in the face of the rejection of the bitcoin price from the €29,640 levels, we may see a further contraction even below €20,300 in the short term.

    In this line we can find Michael Van Poppe, who suggested yesterday that the price of bitcoin in case of not defending the level of 26,253 euros, we could expect a further retracement towards the decline zone below €20,300.

    Meanwhile, the popular trader and influencer Lisa Edwards, Suggested that BTC is currently in a crucial decision time, where a pullback is possible before a pivot of current levels, suggesting that the range of 26,500 euros is a good time to enter.

    However, for the renowned crpyto-trader Scott Melker, the price of bitcoin could fall only a little to the bottom line located at 25,406 euros, in case of losing the current level of quotation. According to Melker, what BTC did recently to ‘test’ the lower support level of the descending channel, is an excellent example of the great buying opportunity that the price is generating in the current ranges.

    The opinions expressed in this post are the absolute responsibility of the author and they have nothing to do with cointelegraph’s editorial line. Every investment carries a risk and requires your own research. This is not financial advice.


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