CDB returns reach 122% of CDI after last Selic hike

The increase in the Selic rate to 12.75% per year and the signs that higher rates are on the table for the next meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) led to a new upward adjustment in the returns offered by fixed-income securities. , especially post-fixes.

Among Bank Deposit Certificates (CDBs), the maximum return now reaches 122% of the CDI, according to data from the financial market solutions company Quantum Finance collected at the request of the InfoMoney. The numbers do not take into account the Income Tax (IR) deduction.

According to the survey, the CDB in question is a paper issued by Banco Master, maturing in 12 months. The institution has a BBB- credit risk rating. That is, a grade that is considered of good quality, according to the Fitch Ratings agency, but which is closer to the speculative level. Data was collected by Quantum Finance between April 24 and May 6.

By way of comparison, the maximum gross rate offered by a CDB with the same maturity approximately 15 days before was 115% of the CDI, and the issue was by Banco Mercantil Brasil.

Read more:
• Treasury Direct: bonds rise for the 4th day; fixed rates hit a new record and rates reach 12.78%

The survey also showed that the interest offered by floating CDBs linked to the CDI of shorter term, such as three months, improved. In the last 15 days, the maximum gross return delivered by a paper of this type reached 106.75% of the CDI, around 1 basis point (0.01 percentage point) above the one seen in the previous fortnight.

The issuer in this case was Banco Pan, which has a credit risk rating (rating) national long-term AA, according to Fitch Ratings. This is considered the agency’s second highest quality level.

Gross returns from CDBs indexed to CDI (from 04/24 to 05/06)

Term (months) indexer Minimum Rate average rate maximum rate number of titles Highest rate issuer
3 DI 100.00% 102.53% 106.75% 66 PAN BANK
6 DI 97.50% 101.94% 105.75% 27 BANCO BTG PACTUAL
12 DI 90.00% 101.51% 122.00% 45 MASTER BANK
24 DI 93.00% 99.61% 120.00% 23 BRK FINANCIAL
36+ DI 96.00% 103.00% 118.00% 27 FINANCIAL SINOSERRA

Source: Quantum Finance

CDBs linked to the IPCA

With several houses starting to predict that the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) exceeds 10% this year, CDBs with remuneration linked to the indicator also underwent adjustments in the last 15 days.

Highlight for the advance seen in the maximum gross rates offered by papers maturing from 24 months, in which the maximum gross real interest increased 14 basis points (0.14 percentage point), going from 6.46% to 6.60 % per year.

This is a CDB issued by Banco BMG, which has a national long-term rating A, as assessed by Fitch Ratings. In other words, it has high quality, in the agency’s view.

A similar movement was also seen with CDBs maturing after 36 months, in which the maximum gross real rate reached 6.06% per year, higher than the 5.83% seen 15 days earlier. The paper offering this return was issued by Banco BTG Pactual, which has an AA long-term national rating, according to Fitch Ratings.

Gross returns on inflation-indexed CDBs (from 04/24 to 05/06)

Term (months) indexer Minimum Rate average rate maximum rate number of titles Highest rate issuer
12 100% IPCA 4.71% 5.25% 6.10% 82 PAN BANK
24 100% IPCA 5.25% 5.72% 6.60% 64 BANK BMG
36+ 100% IPCA 5.20% 5.57% 6.06% 31 BANCO BTG PACTUAL

Source: Quantum Finance

Bonds with returns linked to inflation have been gaining more space in the portfolios of wealth managers. In conversations with the InfoMoneymanagers highlighted that the interest offered is high, above 6%, in addition to the fact that such papers offer protection against the loss of purchasing power.

Read more:
• Selic at 12.75% per year: how to invest? Inflation bonds, multimarkets and FIIs gain space

Accumulated data for 12 months show that the advance of official inflation, measured by the IPCA, has already reached 11.30%. And the expectation is not to improve so quickly. Inflationary pressures should continue to be quite widespread in the next release of the full indicator for April, which will be made this Wednesday (11).

In Bradesco’s projections, the IPCA should rise 0.98% in April. According to the bank, despite the downward impact of the green flag on electricity prices, food prices and core components should continue to push the indicator upwards.

Itaú, on the other hand, forecasts a rise of 1.04% for the full month, which would take inflation in 12 months to 12.11% – for the bank’s analysts, April will be the peak of inflation in 2022.

prefixed CBDs

In the case of fixed-rate bonds, interest rates did not show a single direction: shorter-term bonds, up to 12 months, showed an increase in the interest offered, while bonds with a maturity of 24 months or more showed advances in some cases and declines in others. .

Gross returns from prefixed CDBs (from 04/24 to 05/06)

Term (months) indexer Minimum Rate average rate maximum rate number of titles Highest rate issuer
3 PREFIXED 12.63% 12.99% 13.34% 57 BANCO BTG PACTUAL
6 PREFIXED 13.04% 13.32% 13.62% 25 BANCO BTG PACTUAL
12 PREFIXED 12.85% 13.51% 19.56% 33 MASTER BANK
24 PREFIXED 12.90% 13.32% 13.72% 4 BANCO PINE
36+ PREFIXED 11.55% 12.14% 12.40% 6 BANCO BTG PACTUAL

Source: Quantum Finance

Bonds maturing after three months, for example, offered a maximum rate of 13.34% per year in the last 15 days. In the previous survey carried out by Quantum, the maximum gross return delivered by a debt security of the same term was 13.02%.

For longer terms, such as from 12 months onwards, the maximum gross return could reach 19.56% per year. The issuer in question was Banco Master.

Although the interest offered by fixed-rate securities has increased, for the most part, experts point out that caution is needed when allocating in bonds that remunerate based on rates that are known at the time of purchase of the paper.

With the chance that the Central Bank will have to raise interest rates at the next meeting, as signaled by the monetary authority in the communiqué of the last Copom meeting, the remuneration locked by a fixed rate paper may be delayed. In other words, it may be below what the Selic offers, as it tends to continue rising.

In a report released to clients, Camilla Dolle and Pietro Consolaro, responsible for the analysis of fixed income at XP, highlighted that they kept the allocation in fixed rate relatively low in the portfolio.

“We continue to see the possibility of new inflationary shocks and uncertainties in the short term, which leads us to keep the fixed rate allocation relatively low for the time being”, pointed out the analysts.

CDB up to 220% of CDI

Although the survey was not able to monitor exclusive offers made by some brokers with a focus on attracting customers, when analyzing the platforms of several brokers, InfoMoney also found CDB options with maturity in 3 months that offered up to 220% of the CDI.

The first was an offer by Genial, which offered a CDB from the bank itself, with a yield of 220% of the CDI, and daily liquidity. To purchase the product, however, certain conditions had to be met: being a new customer; make a minimum contribution of BRL 10 and a maximum of BRL 10 thousand; and perform only a single application in the CBD. The offer has no expiration date, according to Genial.

There were also two offers of CDBs by Banco XP. One was available on Rico and the other on the XP platform. In this case, according to the brokers, the gross return reached 200% of the CDI and the investor needed to invest at least R$ 500 and a maximum of R$ 5 thousand per CPF. The two offers are exclusive to new customers of the two houses who opened an account until May 31, and customers who opened an account until April 30, 2022, but did not make any investments through the platforms. Offers will be available until 3pm on June 3.

New highs ahead

Risk aversion sentiment in the markets is expected to continue this week. In addition to disclosing the IPCA, financial agents are waiting for the presentation of the Copom minutes tomorrow (10th).

Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, says that he will look for clues between the lines to understand if the next meeting will be the last to raise the Selic rate. That’s because, in the last statement, the autarchy said only that it should adjust the basic interest rate to a lesser extent, at the next meeting in June.

“If they arrive and say in the minutes or in an interview that the next one is the last one, the part of the market that expects the increase to go beyond June, will ask for 0.75 percentage point. The part that does not, will ask to continue with a 0.50 percentage point increase [em junho]”, observes Cruz.

He recalls that it is difficult to know the direction before the Copom minutes are released because the leaders did not follow what they had promised in the previous communiqué and in the interviews in which they said they would stop raising interest rates at this month’s meeting. “Maybe they do it this time [de novo]”, says the strategist.

The futures interest rate curve today prices a rise of 0.50 percentage point at the meeting next month and predicts that the Selic will end this year between 13.50% and 13.75%. For next year, there are also more risks on the radar.

In a report, Levante’s analysis team highlighted that the chances of the basic interest rate remaining at a higher level in 2023 also increased, due to the deterioration of expectations.

According to them, the deceleration of the General Price Index – Internal Availability (IGP-DI), which rose 0.41% in April, compared to 2.37% in March, was not enough to alleviate the pressure on inflation.

Also worrying are the readjustments announced by Petrobras on diesel this Monday (9), in which the average sale price of diesel from the oil company to distributors will rise from R$ 4.51 to R$ 4.91 per liter, a high of almost 9%. However, the prices of gasoline and LPG were maintained.

Added to this, according to Levante analysts, there is a probability of a 75 percentage point increase in June by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the American central bank. According to a study by the CME Group, the chance of this happening today is 83%. This percentage differs from what was put by Jerome Powell, president of the institution, last week when announcing the increase in interest rates in the United States.

At the time, he said that a 75 basis point hike in interest rates was not “actively being considered.” However, expectations for short-term inflation were quite high. “We hope to maintain a neutral level for rates, but if it is appropriate to go beyond that, we will not hesitate,” he said in a speech.

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