Via (VIIA3) publishes results for the 1st quarter after the market closes: what to expect?

Via (VIIA3) discloses this Monday (9) its balance sheet for the first quarter of 2022, being the first of the major e-commerce retailers with shares traded on B3 to bring its numbers to the public this season – in which a good part of analysts and investors are waiting carefully to see how these companies will fare in a scenario of inflation and high interest rates, which puts pressure on margins and demand. The shares recorded a strong fall accumulated in 2022, of 48%, among the 5 biggest lows of the Ibovespa in the period.

What is generally expected is that the entire industry will advance in margins, with companies increasing their commission rates. However, “retailers are likely to remain pressured by the challenging macro, although we expect to see an improvement in margin dynamics as companies increase their commission rates.” say XP Investimentos analysts.

Morgan Stanley follows suit, stating that both Via and Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) have already cited a greater focus on margins, even with lower growth. “We expect, however, a contraction of margins for both companies despite the focus on expenses.”

Credit Suisse also traces the period between January and March this year as one of “difficulties” for retailers. “Categories such as electronics and home appliances, which are very important to Magazine Luiza and Via, continue to perform poorly, due to macroeconomic challenges and high competition”.

Via should benefit slightly around physical retail

Despite the difficult macro scenario, Via’s quarterly result should be slightly boosted on an annual basis by the reopening of stores, since in the first quarter of last year Covid-19 was in its second wave, with greater restrictions. The company is the one with the greatest exposure to physical retail.

“We estimate a growth in gross volume of total merchandise of 2% per year, due to the poor performance of physical retail last year, with same-store sales increasing 3%”, points out XP.

The brokerage firm’s analysts see, on the positive side, Via having an addition of 0.3 percentage point in its Ebitda margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization on net revenue), to 8.1%, with efforts to have lower selling and administrative expenses – despite a decline in gross margin, with inflation increasing the cost of goods sold.

Credit Suisse also highlights the retailer’s efforts at profitability, despite. “On the profitability front, the company should deliver a good quarter at the operational level, with a gross margin above 30% and a decent Ebitda margin of 8%”, they comment.

Finally, Ágora Investimentos also believes that the retailer will advance in its margin. “The company’s management made adjustments to adapt to the reality of a weaker demand environment”. The house highlights that Via increased prices and changed its credit policy, with fewer installments, lower promotions and charging more interest.

XP projects that Via will bring an Ebitda of R$ 598 million, Credit Suisse, of R$ 604 million and Ágora, of R$ 611 million.

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