Average annual global temperature could rise by 1.5 degrees over the next five years

The global average annual temperature could temporarily stay 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values ​​in at least one of the next five years, the UN warns this Tuesday, pointing to a probability of almost 50%.

Temporarily exceeding this limit, over the course of a year, is not, however, synonymous with a lasting surpassing, as defined by the Paris climate agreement.

This agreement aims to contain the increase in the global average temperature to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below 1.5 degrees.

According to a new climate report published by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the probability of a temporary breach of the 1.5 degrees centigrade threshold has increased steadily since 2015, when that risk was close to zero.

Between 2017 and 2021, the probability of overcoming was 10% and increased to almost 50% for the period between 2022-2026, warns the WMO.

However, there is only a small probability (10%) that the five-year average will exceed the threshold of plus 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

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