Future Ibovespa operates close to stability, detached from abroad; commodities weigh

The Ibovespa futures operate slightly higher at the beginning of the trading session on Tuesday (10). At 9:25 am, the contract for June advanced 0.09%, to 104,703 points, partially following what is seen in the American pre-market.

There, futures recover part of the strong drops of the last few days, although investors continue to position themselves with caution, with the fear of a stagnant world economy along with a strong rise in prices. The Dow Jones contract due in June is up 0.65%, the S&P 500 is up 0.70% and the Nasdaq is up 1.10%.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 closed at their worst levels in a year. The Nasdaq index went further, regressing to the level it had in March 2020.

“International stock markets are positive in the morning, with a slight decline in the interest rate on the American 10-year bond to 3.01%, relieving part of the downward pressure. Even so, concerns about monetary tightening and the global economic slowdown remain on the radar, reflecting on the 10-year Treasury yield, which may continue to cause volatility in the short term”, comments XP Investimentos, in its report. morning call.

In Europe, the trend is also one of recovery, with investors looking for opportunities amid the sell-off in recent days. Germany’s DAX is up 1.30%. The UK’s FTSE rose 0.61%. CAC 40, from France, and STOXX 600, from the entire Eurozone, are up 1.39% and 1.01%, respectively.

In the Old Continent, however, the market is eyeing the possible implementation of a total embargo on Russian oil, which is still uncertain. French Minister Clement Beaune announced that European Union members could reach an agreement on the matter this week. The approval of the measure should strengthen the prospect of stagflation for the region.

The main Asian indices, however, continued in a downward trend, reflecting yesterday’s trading session in the West, with technology companies bleeding – Tencent shares fell 2.30% and Alibaba (BABA34) retreated 4.81%. Hong Kong’s HSI was down 1.84%. Nikkei, from Japan, and Kospi, from South Korea, had drops of 0.58% and 0.55%, in sequence. The mainland China’s Shanghai index, however, managed to escape the fall and advanced 1.06%.

Despite the rise on the Shanghai stock exchange, the price of iron ore dropped 4.12% at the port of Dalian, at US$ 597.66 a ton. Crude Oil also has a day down, with Brent for July down 1.08% to $104.80.

In Brazil, future Ibovespa reflects Copom and retail minutes

On the domestic front, the Central Bank earlier released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which provides details on the members’ interpretations of the current economic scenario.

“In the monetary policy decision, point 18 called attention in which it says that ‘it is appropriate that the monetary tightening cycle continues to advance significantly in even more contractionary territory’”, pointed out Fabio Louzada, economist and CEO of Eu me banco. “This makes me believe that the Central Bank will follow a more hawkish and keep raising interest rates.”

The Central Bank also expressed concern about the world scenario – which includes the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine – which they believe can keep inflation high for longer.

In addition to the minutes, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that retail sales advanced 1% in March, compared to a consensus of 0.40%. The growth, despite showing a heated economy, can also be interpreted as a possible impetus to high prices.

The Brazilian yield curve has a relief, however. The DI maturing in January 2023 sees its rate drop four basis points to 13.25%. The DI for January 2025 sees its yield retreat seven points, to 12.37%. On the long end, the contracts for 2027 and 2029 see their yields dropped eight and seven points, respectively, to 12.24% and 12.35%.

The commercial dollar operates close to stability, falling 0.06%, R$5.153 in purchases and R$5.154 in sales.

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