The dish made, usually composed of meat, rice, beans, potatoes and salad, increased by 23.5% in the last 12 months. According to a study by Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics), the PF, as it is popularly known, increased much more than the inflation measured in the same period, which was 10.3% by the IPC-M (Consumer Price Index – Market) and 12% by the IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index).
The study is based on the evaluation of ten basic items: rice, carioca beans, black beans, lettuce, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, chicken pieces, eggs and beef. Of all of them, the one that increased the most was the tomato (126%).
Of the ten items, only rice (-10.5%) and beans (-3.4%) suffered deflation, that is, a fall in prices. According to Matheus Peçanha, economist at Ibre, the price of these grains was inflated because of the drought caused by the natural phenomenon La Niña, which occurred last year. “After this problem, the rainfall regime returned to normal, or even in excess, and then production also normalized”, he explains.
Rice and bean prices, despite the deflation registered in the last 12 months, are still higher than before, in the pre-war period.pandemic, in 2019. “If you compare the 24 months, deflation is not enough to reach the pre-pandemic period, so beans and rice are even more expensive. But, as there are many crops in a single year, it is normal for the price to return to the fairest level.”
In the 12 months immediately preceding, from May 2020 to April 2021, rice had risen 55%, and beans, 61%, mainly due to drought problem.
Regarding the rise in tomatoes, which more than doubled in price, the economist explains that “vegetables suffer [com o regime de chuvas] In general. The carrot [200%] and tomatoes are the flag of this inflation. This rainfall regime affected the regions that produce vegetables, such as the Minas Gerais forest”.
He says that these products, for having very fast harvests, have their offers changed in very short terms and end up destabilizing prices. The same should happen, albeit at a slower pace, when the rainfall regime stabilizes, which should happen from winter onwards.
Proteins, such as chicken and beef, take a little longer to experience changes in supply, which, according to Peçanha, may explain the deceleration of meat in relation to chicken. “That drought affected cattle more because they feed on pasture. With the improvement of the drought, the livestock issue has improved, but, in general, the impacts of this climate take longer to reach the proteins. Furthermore, [a desaceleração] may be linked to Chinese embargoes on Brazilian meateven last year, as the data is from the last 12 months.”
The prospects for an improvement in the inflation of products related to the prepared dish are good, since, from the winter on, the rainfall regime should normalize, although there is concern about the stock of fertilizers and manure, due to the war between Ukraine and Russia. “Although the Ministry of Agriculture has guaranteed that we have stock, this problem [da inflação] it can happen through a shortage of fertilizer and fertilizer”, he concludes.
The IPCA for the month of April, an index that measures official inflation, will be released this Wednesday (11) and will be released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The IPCA-15, which measures the preview of inflation, was released on April 27 and registered 1.73%, the highest rate for the month in 27 years. In the last 12 months, inflation exceeded 12%, according to the IBGE.
* Intern at R7under the supervision of Ana Lúcia Vinhas