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Futures Ibovespa declines, in line with foreign exchanges and with a decline in commodities

The Ibovespa futures operates in decline at the beginning of the trading session this Thursday (12), following the performance of the main American contracts in the pre-market. At 9:20 am, the contract maturing in June fell 1.02% to 104,485 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.77%, 1.04% and 1.64%, respectively. There, investors continue to reflect the fact that consumer inflation has advanced 0.3% in April, above the consensus of 0.2%.

“Markets dawn negative while they are still digesting the US consumer inflation (CPI) data, which came above expectations and keeps alive the possibility of the Fed accelerating or lengthening the cycle of tightening US interest rates”, comments XP Investimentos, in your morning call.

In Europe, the indices have fallen sharply. Germany’s DAX is down 1.70%. The UK’s FTSE is down 1.93%. France’s CAC 40 is down 2.24%. Eurozone-wide STOXX 600 is down 1.63%.

There, in addition to weighing the general sentiment caused by the still strong inflation in the United States, investors are also reflecting the publication of weaker-than-expected data in the United Kingdom – the country earlier released industrial production, service numbers and preview of gross domestic product (GDP) frustrating consensus.

In Asia, the prospect of higher interest rates weighed on technology companies, which were the main drops – China’s Alibaba (BABA34) fell more than 6.5% and Japan’s SoftBank, known for investing in companies in the sector, plummeted 8%.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange, with less exposure to techs, was close to stability. Hong Kong’s HSI, however, fell 2.24%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.77%. South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.63%.

In addition to the prospect of higher interest rates in the US, in Asia, the fact that the Hong Kong monetary authority has announced the repurchase of HK$ 1.59 billion to strengthen the local currency weighs on the indices, which should draw liquidity from the economy. local.

In commodities, iron ore saw its price drop 1.36% at the port of Dalian, with the tonne traded at US$ 117.17. Crude oil also declines, with Brent trading at $105.56.

Future Ibovespa reflects service data and also inflation

In Brazil, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that, in March, the volume of services in the country grew 1.70% on a monthly basis, compared to a consensus of 0.80%.

Despite signaling that the Brazilian economy remains heated – with the service sector representing almost 70% of the national GDP – the index can also put pressure on the interest rate curve, putting pressure on inflation. Yesterday, the same IBGE announced that inflation in April increased by 1.06%, above the consensus, despite decelerating in relation to March.

The medium and long-term yield curve retreats, after opening slightly higher at the beginning of the session. The DI yield maturing in January 2023 is up two basis points to 13.34%, and the 2025 DI yield drops four points to 12.40%. On the long end, the DIs for January 2027 and 2029 see their rates decline by 0.06 pp, to 12.24% and 0.05 pp, to 12.35%, respectively

The dollar once again advanced over the real, with the futures contract rising 0.85% to R$5.22. The commercial dollar advanced 0.81%, at R$5.185 in purchases and at R$5.186. DXY is up 0.56%.

Technical analysis by Pamela Semezatto, investment analyst and day trader specialist at Clear Corretora

Ibovespa

“Index had a bullish candle yesterday, but with much higher wick. This tells us that, for now, it’s just a re-raise movement. To think about purchases, we need days with high displacement and preferably above the last (intermediate) top, which is at 108,370 points”.

Dollar

“USD futures remain above the R$5.13 support and as long as it is above that point, it still indicates higher. The next resistance is at R$5,270. If it goes back below that support, we could see a resumption to the downtrend.”

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