Russian mistakes keep Ukraine war far from over, says expert

International relations professor Marcos Vinícius de Freitas believes that the conflict could still last a few more months

EUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
Russian main battle tank parked on a street in Mariupol, a war-torn city in Ukraine

THE war at Ukraine it is far from over and now the Russians are trying to correct the mistakes made at the beginning of the conflict. For the professor of international relations Marcos Vinicius de Freitas, the crisis should last for a few more months. “The Georgia war lasted 14 days. So, if I think that Ukraine is 10 times bigger than Georgia, we can reach up to 140 days, just in terms of proportion or something similar. Everyone thought it would have a quicker outcome, because there wouldn’t be as much resistance from Ukraine. We knew that Ukraine was prepared for a war, after all Ukraine has been preparing for this type of confrontation since it was invaded in 2014, but what we see is that Ukraine has proved to be much more resilient. And there were, initially, the Russians will also recognise, a series of mistakes in the strategies they implemented,” Freitas said.

The professor assesses that the war in Ukraine is in a second phase. According to him, despite the constant violence, the Russians are trying to keep the conquered areas. “They kept there what they had conquered in this whole process and, from there, they started to solidify and consolidate the conquests they had had. So, there you have two moments of the war. A beginning with several mistakes on the part of the Russians, which were internationally highlighted, we had a moment of reflection and return to base, the consolidation of what was conquered, and the third thing, which was the big surprise, was precisely the resilience of the Ukraine, also heavily supported by weapons that came from the West. And you see that, in recent times, the great thing that Russia has done is, precisely, to attack these new weapons and also the supply channels for these weapons”, says Freitas. The professor points out that the president of Russia, Vladimir Putinwants to revive the Russian empire and highlights that, for the time being, international economic measures against the country have been circumvented internally.

*With information from reporter Camila Yunes

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