Marília leads for PE government and 2nd place is a tie, says survey

Real Time Big Data survey, released today, points federal deputy Marília Arraes (Solidarity) ahead of the electoral race for the governorship of the state of Pernambuco. In the stimulated scenario — when names are presented to respondents — she has 27% of voting intentions.

Considering the margin of error of more or less three percentage points, the second place has a technical tie between the mayor of Caruaru, Raquel Lyra (PSDB), with 18%; and Anderson Ferreira (PL), mayor of Jaboatão dos Guararapes, with 12%.

Then come Danilo Cabral (PSB) and Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), with 10% each; João Arnaldo (PSOL), Wellington Carneiro (PTB) and Jones Manoel (PCB) were each with 1%. Esteves Jacinto (PRTB), Jadilson Bombeiro (PMB) and Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU) did not score.

In the spontaneous scenario, when the interviewees can choose any name for their vote, there is a tie between Marília, with 11%, and Raquel, with 7%.

The survey interviewed 1,500 voters in Pernambuco by telephone between the 24th and 25th of June. The confidence level, according to the institute, is 95%. The survey was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number PE-06668/2022.

See the scenarios:

Stimulated scenario

  • Marília Arraes (Solidarity): 27%
  • Raquel Lyra (PSDB): 18%
  • Anderson Ferreira (PL): 12%
  • Danilo Cabral (PSB): 10%
  • Miguel Coelho (Union Brazil): 10%
  • João Arnaldo (PSOL): 1%
  • Wellington Carneiro (PTB): 1%
  • Jones Manoel (PCB): 1%
  • Esteves Jacinto (PRTB): 0%
  • Jadilson Firefighter (PMB): 0%
  • Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 0%
  • White/Null: 9%
  • Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 11%

spontaneous scenario

  • Marília Arraes (Solidarity): 11%
  • Raquel Lyra (PSDB): 7%
  • Anderson Ferreira (PL): 4%
  • Danilo Cabral (PSB): 3%
  • Miguel Coelho (Union Brazil): 3%
  • White/Null: 15%
  • Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 57%


For the Senate vacancy by the state, the research tested only one scenario and in a stimulated way. In it, there is a technical tie between the former minister of Education Mendonça Filho (União Brasil) and the former senator Armando Monteiro (PSDB).

See the scenario for senator:

  • Mendonça Filho (Union Brazil): 23%
  • Armando Monteiro (PSDB): 21%
  • Teresa Leitão (PT): 10%
  • Gilson Machado (PL): 8%
  • André de Paula (PSD): 6%
  • Eugenia Lima (PSOL): 1%
  • White/Null: 14%
  • Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 17%

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