Cruzeiro reaches 98.1% chances of access and does math by ‘magic number’

With one less game in Série B of the Brazilian Championship, Cruzeiro returns to the field next Tuesday (5th) to face Ituano, at Novelli Júnior, in Itu, at 19:00, in a late game of the 14th round. With 37 points, Raposa occupies the top of the second division and will no longer leave the G-4 at the end of the shift.

The UFMG mathematics department places Raposa today with a 98.1% chance of accessing the first division and a 72.7% chance of winning the title. To nail the access, the numbers show that Cruzeiro needs to reach 64 points. So 27 more points would be needed in 23 rounds to go.

The path then points to nine victories and the almost certainty of access, since only in three opportunities a team with this score since 2006 has not managed to climb. The years were 2009, 2012 and 2015.

In a perspective of nine victories, it is necessary to remember that Cruzeiro still has 11 more games as home team. The team is currently the only 100% at home team in Series A and B and has only conceded one goal playing in this condition.

In the first round, the last home match for Paulo Pezzolano’s team will be Novorizontino, on July 17, at 4 pm. The team still accumulates a yield of 82.7%, with only two defeats and six goals conceded.

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