Series C: Mirassol has a 99% chance of ranking; Atlético-CE has an 84% risk of falling | brasileirão c series

With six rounds to go in the first phase, Serie C enters the definition period in the next few days. Mirassol, leader of the competition, reached 99.7% of chances to advance to the second phase of the Terceirona. The numbers are from the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

It is also important to make it clear: Mirassol and Botafogo-PB still face each other in a late game of the 12th round.

Paysandu has a 97% chance of advancing to the 2nd phase of Serie C — Photo: Arte / ge

At the request of the ge, UFMG also detailed the score needed to advance to the next stage. The club that reaches 32 points have a guaranteed spot. On the other hand, the odds are remote for the team that doesn’t make it past 26: only 16% probability.

The dispute is also intense at the bottom of the leaderboard. Atlético-CE, last place, has 84% downgrade risk to Series D.

Chance of ranking

  • Mirassol – 99.7%
  • Paysandu – 97.4%
  • ABC – 92.6%
  • Botafogo-PB – 87.9%
  • Rowing – 66.9%
  • Botafogo-SP – 66.3%
  • Manaus – 55.9%
  • São José – 48.5%
  • Ypiranga – 45.6%
  • Figueirense – 44.3%
  • Round Round – 31.8%
  • Aparecida – 28.2%
  • High – 11.2%
  • Victory – 7.6%
  • Forest – 7.2%
  • Trust – 3.7%
  • Campinense – 1.8%
  • Rail – 1.6%
  • Brazil of Pelotas – 0.48%
  • Atlético-CE – 0.20%

Score required to advance to a level

  • 32 points – 100%
  • 31 points – 99.99%
  • 30 points – 99.9%
  • 29 points – 98.2%
  • 28 points – 85.7%
  • 27 points – 51.4%
  • 26 points – 16%
  • 25 points – 1.9%
  • 24 points – 0.08%
  • 23 points – 0.001%
  • 22 points – 0%
  • Atlético-CE – 84%
  • Brazil of Pelotas – 74.3%
  • Rail – 62.5%
  • Campinense – 57.8%
  • Trust – 37.8%
  • Forest-CE – 26.6%
  • Victory – 24.1%
  • High – 18.8%
  • Aparecida – 5.8%
  • Round Round – 4.5%
  • Figueirense – 1.3%
  • Ypiranga – 1%
  • São José – 0.85%
  • Manaus – 0.29%
  • Rowing – 0.18%
  • Botafogo-SP – 0.14%
  • Botafogo-PB – 0.07%
  • ABC – 0.001%

Score required not to fall

  • 25 points – 0% risk of relegation
  • 24 points – 0.02%
  • 23 points – 0.7%
  • 22 points – 7.2%
  • 21 points – 31.9%
  • 20 points – 68.9%
  • 19 points – 93%
  • 18 points – 99.2%
  • 17 points – 99.9%
  • 16 points – 100%

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