USDA to reduce soybean crop and increase US corn 22/23 in new…

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The new USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) supply and demand figures arrive this Tuesday (12) and once again stir the mood of the market. After the change in planted area already presented on the 30th, the most expected changes are for the 2022/23 crop, as more corn and less soybean areas were reported, which could change the estimated results for the new northern crop -American.

More than that, in the analysis of Todd Hultman, from the US portal DTN The Progressive Farmer, the updated data could help in a recovery, even if partial, in grain prices. “After a month of falling grain prices, the USDA’s WASDE report has a chance to stop the current economic concern and put the market’s attention back on the outlook for this year’s supply,” he says.

2022/23 USA CROP

Production – US soybean production is expected to average 122.88 million tonnes, in an expected range of between 122.42 and 126.28 million tonnes. In June, the estimated by the USDA was 126.28 million. In the 2021/22 harvest, the US harvested 120.7 million tons.

As for corn, the range of expectations is from 367.30 to 371.88 million tons, with an average of 368.83 million. A month ago, the number came to 367.30 million and a year ago, 383.04 million tons of the North American cereal were harvested.

The 2022/23 wheat harvest is expected to be 47.46 million tonnes, in a range of projections of 42.65 to 49.12 million tonnes. In the previous report, the USDA estimated 47.27 million. Last year, the North American crop of the grain was 44.8 million tons.

Productivity – The expected average for US soybean yield is 57.2 sacks per hectare, against 57.6 scs/ha for the 2021/22 crop. For corn, the market bets between 185.15 and 185.67 bags per hectare, with an average of 185.15 for June and the previous harvest.

Ending Inventories – For the ending stocks of the 2022/23 soybean crop, the expected average is 5.82 million tons, in a range of 3.84 to 7.62 million. In June, the number was 7.62 million.

Regarding corn, market expectations range from 31.35 to 39.75 million tons, with the average being 36.4 million tons. Last month, the US department’s estimate was 35.65 million tons.

Traders still expect ending wheat stocks to be between 15.73 and 18.78 million tonnes, averaging 17.53 million tonnes. In June, the number came in at 17.06 million.

2021/22 US CROP

The average expectation for ending stocks of old-crop soybeans in the US is 5.85 million tons, with projections ranging between 5.17 and 6.80 million.

For the 2021/22 US corn ending stocks, the expected average is 37.87 million tons, with numbers ranging from 36.45 to 38.99 million tons. In the previous report, the number came at 37.72 million tons.

For wheat, market expectations range from 17.83 to 18.26 million tons, with an average of 17.91 million. In June, the USDA estimated 21/22 cereal ending stocks at 17.83 million.

FINAL STOCKS WORLD 2022/23

Soy – World soybean ending stocks for the 2022/23 harvest are expected to range from 96.5 to 101 million tons, with an average of 99.2 million. In June, the number came in at 100.5 million tons.

Corn – For corn, expectations ranging from 308.5 to 312.3 million tons, with an average of 310.7 million. In the previous report, the USDA estimated world stocks of new season grain at 310.5 million.

Wheat – The expected average for global ending stocks of wheat is 267.8 million tonnes, in a range of 265 to 272.5 million. A month ago, the estimate was 266.9 million.

FINAL STOCKS WORLD 2021/22

Soy – From the old crop, global ending stocks of soybeans are expected to be between 85.7 and 87 million tons, with average expectations standing at 86.4 million. In June, the USDA estimated 86.2 million.

Corn – For corn, the market expects the 2021/22 ending stocks to be between 310.9 and 315 million tons, with an average of 311.4 million tons. Last month’s figure was 310.9 million.

Wheat – Projections for ending wheat stocks range from 279 to 280 million tons, with an average of 279.5 million and compared to last month’s estimate of 279.4 million tons.

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