The accounts that may (or may not) take Palmeiras to the Brazilian title – 08/08/2022

Palmeiras reached 45 points yesterday. A mystical number for the most pessimistic fans and fans – or realists, as they identify themselves. The number that saves the team from relegation.

It sounds like a joke, but for many scalded cats there is always a tragedy lurking.

Of course, this year, there isn’t. There is a team with a six-point advantage in the lead and a simple victory at home from advancing to the semi-finals of Libertadores.

To continue in the fight for the continent, the answer is simple: win. Not depending on penalties and beating Galo in normal time, on Wednesday. The competition will only return at the end of September, so even if they qualified, Palmeiras will be able to focus exclusively on the Brasileirão.

Where the math gets a little complicated. The advantage would be more comfortable if it weren’t for the sequence the leader faces now: the entire G4.

First, Corinthians away from home. The rival has been weakened, breathing on machines in Libertadores and Copa do Brasil, but he will certainly arrive at the Derby very motivated. The difference can go up to 9, practically taking Timão out of contention. Or 3, putting everyone back in the bololô.

Then Flamengo, at Allianz. As in 2018, when Palmeiras had a 4-point lead with 7 matches to play, a match that may or may not keep the rubro-negro alive on that front: if they lose, they are 12 points away from a very consistent opponent. It would depend on a Palmeiras disintegration to lift the mug. If it wins, it shortens the distance to a maximum of 6, depending on what happens in the next round. In it, Flamengo receives Athletico, which usually gives the Carioca team a lot of work.

Finally, Fluminense, in Maracanã, at 11 am. The difference today is 7 points. In the meantime, the tricolor will face Internacional, away, and Coritiba, at home. With Palmeiras stumbling, they can get to the confrontation with a chance to surpass Abel’s team. In this round, the 24th, Corinthians faces Red Bull Bragantino, at home, after traveling to take Fortaleza, and Flamengo faces Botafogo, at Nilton Santos.

In the first round, Palmeiras pocketed 5 points in this sequence. It was, in fact, where he got it right in the championship – despite giving an unnecessary draw to Flu, at Allianz Parque.

Flamengo has a team to close the siege, no one doubts it. As for Corinthians and Fluminense, I at least doubt it. For the less robust cast and for the long-term melting history of Fernando Diniz.

In other words, Palmeiras can reach the 25th round fully consolidated in the lead, with a double-digit advantage over the strongest rival, with no relevant direct confrontations ahead. There will be 13 games left, but the opponents’ lives will have become very difficult. Or it will all be tangled up. Or Alviverde will have lost the lead. Judging by what you see of this team when you have focus, this last option seems very unlikely.

For people from Palmeiras, it’s time to hold your breath and hope that August is the best month of the year. To flamenguists, corinthians, tricolores and those who still believe in the title, it’s zicar, zicar and zicar.

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