WeatherTrends 360: West Corn Belt Risk Still Dry and Warm Continues…

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Concerns about the lack of rain in the western part of the Corn Belt are expected to continue until mid-August, according to international meteorologists on Monday (8), leaving the market still volatile and anxious about the real size of the new North American crop. should take over. According to WeatherTrends 360, the last week was the fourth hottest on record for the month.

The trend is for temperatures to remain quite high, especially in the western and central parts of the belt, exceeding 38ºC. Even the night temperatures are also quite high, which further complicates the situation of the fields that are in these locations.

“Hot weather combined with gusts of wind quickly dried out soils (…) The drought deepened in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota, according to data compiled by the Monitor da Seca”, reads a note from WeatherTrends 360.

In the images below, from the North American Institute of Meteorology, it is possible that the period until August 13 will have below average rainfall and temperatures in practically the entire Corn Belt.

WhatsApp Image 2022-08-08 at 14.56.37
Map: WeatherTrends 360

“Precipitation should be a little more generalized in the second week of August in the center of, but the west will continue to receive only erratic precipitation. It is likely that drought conditions will deepen or may expand in this area”, informs the institution.

On the following map, from the Farm Futures portal, it is possible to see that there are many yellow markings – where the crop is considered regular – dark and light green – for good or excellent conditions – and a few red ones, which show very bad crops. And the reds are, precisely, in states further west of the Corn Belt, such as Missouri, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

WhatsApp Image 2022-08-08 at 14.56.14
Map: Farm Futures

“Part of the corn crop in this area (Missouri) is already being removed from the field, the rest is just dying. Most of the hectares are zero. There is some irrigation, but it’s a struggle to get the water. corn I’ve tried to grow in 31 years. Or, maybe I should say the worst crop I haven’t grown,” a Missouri farmer told the American portal. On soybeans, “the crop is struggling to survive. We hope to get some rain, or it will end up like corn.”

In Wisconsin, the farmer reports that any rain that comes now for the corn comes late.

On the afternoon of this Monday (8), at 17:00 (Brasilia time), the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) brings its new weekly crop monitoring report and market expectations are for stability or even a slight reduction of 1% in the index of soybean and corn crops in good or excellent conditions. However, last week the report surprised with a slight improvement registered for soybeans.

In this way, the peak of the “weather market”or weather market, maintaining intense volatility in the behavior of prices in Chicago, as it was already possible to observe earlier this week.

More than that, the new monthly supply and demand bulletin is also coming from the USDA this Friday, August 12, with market expectations indicating a decline in the productivity of both oilseeds and cereals, making traders even more anxious to understand the impacts of climate and the size that the new American crop will reach.

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