Atletico-MG is left with the Brazilian Championship. And it remains for the club to prevent the season from ending in a disastrous way. Eliminated from the Copa do Brasil and Libertadores, Galo needs to react at Nacional and win at least one spot in the next edition of the continental competition. In the speech, the players still do not throw in the towel in the fight for the title. It’s possible? What are the odds? With the answer, mathematicians.
21 rounds of the Brasileirão have already passed. 17 to go. Quite irregular, Atlético is in seventh place, with 32 points. There are 13 points for leader Palmeiras, the team’s tormentor in Libertadores. The scenario for achieving leadership is not at all favorable.
According to the website “Probibilidades no Futebol”, from the mathematics department of UFMG, today, Galo has only a 0.29% chance of being the champion.
“He would have to win every game, and even then, it wouldn’t depend on him alone. There’s not much to do. It’s possible, but a lot has to happen.”
– There are 13 points for Palmeiras. Palmeiras would have to start losing too. If Palmeiras maintains its performance, it will reach 81, 82 points. Atlético would have to add 49, 50 of 51 points to equal – analyzes professor Gilcione Costa, from “Probabilities in Football”.
Cuca guides Atlético-MG players in Cidade do Galo – Photo: Pedro Souza / Atlético-MG
Despite the complicated equation in scoring, Atletico players want to make the remaining 17 games 17 finals.
– As long as there is a mathematical chance, anything is possible. People trust God. There are 17 games as finals. We only have the Brazilian to play. Let’s give life. To, God willing, get as many points as possible and do the math in the end – says Hulk.
“Bora de Brasileirão! The biggest offer of games for a price that gives game. Sign the Premiere!”
If the cup is far away, the spot in Libertadores is a very viable goal. Cuca placed the classification as an essential goal for the club’s planning.
– It is mandatory to arrive among the first. (…) Next year, Galo has a wonderful year, it has the inauguration of a stadium, a dream for everyone, and Galo cannot stay out of a Libertadores.
Atlético-MG team at Mineirão — Photo: Pedro Souza / Atlético-MG
Today, Atlético is one point away from the G-6. There are five from the G-4 (right spot in the group stage). And the G-6 can still be scaled up. The mathematical odds, thinking about G-6, are 29.8%.
– You’re in the fight. A safety score would be about 60 points, which would give a 98% chance of securing G-6. I would need more 28 out of 51. And that can change a lot if Palmeiras or Flamengo win the Libertadores, or Flamengo wins the Copa do Brasil – emphasizes Gilcione Costa.
To fight for the spot in Libertadores, the mathematician highlights that Atlético needs to improve its performance as home team.
– It is necessary to resume the sequence of victories, at least the performance as home team. Today, Atlético is the 10th best home team, with 54%, a poor performance for a cheering team. In 11 games, they won five and there were three draws and three defeats.
“The year is gone, head now into 2023”, says Carol | The Voice of the Crowd
Watch: all about Atlético on ge, Globo and Sportv
Galo na Veia – Atlético-MG Membership Program — Photo: Disclosure