still possible? Atltico counts for the title of the Brazilian Championship

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photo: Pedro Souza/Atltico

Atltico needs a historic start and stumbling blocks from competitors (especially Palmeiras) to win the national title again

On the sunny morning in Curitiba on Father’s Day, this Sunday (14/8), Atltico beat Coritiba at Estdio Couto Pereira, 1-0, and rekindled the hope of the most optimistic part of their fans for a new title in the Series. The Brazilian Championship. But is the conquest still possible? See, below, Galo’s accounts for this feat, which, so far, seems somewhat improbable.

According to the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Atlético, 7th place, with 35 points, has only a 0.5% chance of winning the Brazilian Championship. Palmeiras, which leads the national competition with 48, already has 78.5% in the odds.

On his return to Atltico, between the Brazilian’s innings, coach Cuca set a goal of victories for the Minas Gerais club in 19 games: 15. From then on, Galo lost two and won only one of the matches played in Serie A with the Paraná coach. Well, now, according to Cuca’s accounts, Alvinegro needs 14 wins in 16 games.

If you engage in a historic dash and follow your commander’s projection, the Atlantic will reach 77 points. According to UFMG mathematicians, the team that achieves this score will have a 99.5% chance of winning the national title.

The scenario is unlikely and also depends on a great evolution of the Minas Gerais team, especially in the psychological and technical aspects. The biggest opponent is leader Palmeiras, who is coming off six consecutive victories in the Brazilian Championship and is still looking for the only title missing – besides the Club World Cup – to the already multi-champion Abel Ferreira.

For those who cling to doses of optimism, one factor can boost Galo’s sprint: until they meet Verdo again in Serie A, Atlético will face five teams that occupy lower positions in the classification table. Only them: Gois (13th), Amrica (8th), Atltico-GO (19th), RB Bragantino (9th) and Ava (17th).

Atltico matches in the Brazilian Championship

  • 08/20 – athletic x Gois – Mineiro – 23rd round
  • 08/28 – America x athletic – Independence – 24th round
  • 09/04 – Atltico-GO x athletic – Antonio Accioly – 25th round
  • 09/11 – athletic x RB Bragantino – Mineiro – 26th round
  • 09/18 – Ava x athletic – Hangover – 27th round
  • 09/28 – athletic x Palmeiras – Mineiro – 28th round
  • 10/02 – athletic x Fluminense – Mineiro – 29th round
  • 10/05 – Santos x athletic – Vila Belmiro – 30th round
  • 10/09 – athletic x Cear – Mineiro – 31st round
  • 10/16 – Flamengo x athletic – Maracan – 32nd round
  • 10/23 – Fortress x athletic – Castle – 33rd round
  • 10/26 – athletic x Juventude – Mineiro – 34th round
  • 10/30 – So Paulo x athletic – Morumbi – 35th round
  • 11/06 – athletic x Botafogo – Mineiro – 36th round
  • 11/09 – athletic x Cuiab – Mineiro – 37th round
  • 11/13 – Corinthians x athletic – Neo Qumica Arena – 38th round

In addition to the team’s own victories, the athletican also needs to focus part of his energies on cheering against Palmeiras. Assuming that the 77 points would guarantee the title, the São Paulo team could only add another 29 in the championship. If Abel’s men add ten victories in the remaining 16 games, therefore, Galo would be practically out of contention.

After the victory over Coritiba, Cuca did not even mention the word “title”, but assured that Atltico is in a “new spirit” to make “16 finals” in the sequence of the Brazilian Championship. Meanwhile, the most optimistic fan will continue with the calculator in hand, doing the math for a very distant goal, but still possible.

“A victory that we really, really, really needed, because it was a very delicate moment. A similar moment to last year, when we took Internacional after an elimination. This gives us a new spirit to make 16 finals, which are the games that are missing in the Brazilian Championship. We have full weeks to work and, for sure, we will evolve”, projected Cuca.


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