Cruzeiro is virtually guaranteed in Serie A 2023. That’s what the accounts guarantee, at the moment, taking into account the numbers and income of clubs in the current Serie B.
Serie B: Cruzeiro and Chapecoense draw, and CRB wins Grêmio
To get your hands on access, the score from 58 points is considered as high probability to guarantee a move up.
Leader with 53 points, Cruzeiro is 19 points ahead of Londrina and Sport, both with 34 points. By the current use of the two teams, they would be able to reach, at most, the same current score as Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro players in Brasilia — Photo: Staff Images
in conversation with the gethe professor of the Department of Mathematics at UFMG, Gilcione Costa, explained how the projection is and the current scenario.
– It is very likely that the fifth-placed team will have 57 points or less. So, Cruzeiro, from 58 points, starts to have a great chance of getting access. It’s not 100%, because it’s a possibility. There is a possibility that teams will win many games. It’s very unlikely. The trend, the projection is that, at most, they have 57 points.
The professor explained why he already considers that Cruzeiro is virtually guaranteed in the next Série A of the Brazilian.
– In a little while, the chance will be over 99.999%. Virtually speaking, Cruzeiro has already qualified, is already guaranteed in Serie A next year. Hardly, in 14 games, Cruzeiro will not score six points, 10 points. He has games at Mineirão. Hard to imagine that he won’t score six points. Not even in his bad streak in Serie B, last year, he only scored six points in 14 games.
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Today, mathematics points out that, to have 100% access, it would be necessary to reach 68 points. However, for that, teams outside the G-4 would have to achieve long winning streaks, which is unlikely.
– It’s possible for them to do it, of course. But which teams in the Brasileirão won 10 consecutive games? It’s very rare.
Then the account changes. Cruzeiro currently has an 88% chance of winning the title. With 53 points, 20 more would be needed, approximately, to guarantee the competition. Thus, less than half of the score, which Cruzeiro will still dispute.
– The champion has a very low probability of being above 73, 74 points. To make this score, the team has a 99% chance. Grêmio and Bahia can have a great start, but it’s hard for them to get that score. They are down to 43 points, to get to 74 they would need to score 31 points out of 42 still up for grabs. It is difficult to say that they will have 11 victories, for example.
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5 Star Partner – Cruzeiro — Photo: Publicity