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The Kremlin estimates that Russia’s economy will contract by less than 3% during 2022, while the fall for next year is expected to be less than 1%, according to the outlook released today by the country’s deputy prime minister, Andrey Belousov.
The official indicated that these numbers are better than expected and create “good conditions” for the real income of citizens and the State’s tax revenue to grow.
Despite the war in Ukraine and international sanctions against Moscow, the numbers are better than expected.
In late July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a 6% drop in Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, while in 2023 the drop would be 3.5%.
In its latest monthly report, released earlier this month, the International Energy Agency explained that, as of July, oil production had fallen by just 310,000 barrels a day compared to pre-war levels. The country’s production exceeds 11 million barrels a day.
The Russian economy recorded year-on-year growth of 3.5% in the first quarter of this year, while in the second it contracted by 4%, according to the latest data released by Russian statistics agency Rosstar.
The Russian Executive’s data also represent an improvement over the estimates of the Bank of Russia, which in July expressed its confidence that the GDP contraction in 2022 would be less intense than initially feared, limiting it to a range of between 4% and 6%, while for 2023 it would oscillate between 4% and 1% to grow again in 2024, with an estimated expansion of between 1.5% and 2.5%.
