5 state disputes have more chances of turning around in the 2nd round

If the scenarios of the latest election polls are faithfully reflected next Sunday (Oct 2, 2022), 13 states will have 2nd round contests for governor. In 5 of these cases, the gap between 1st and 2nd place is up to 10 percentage points – which increases the chance of an eventual turnaround on October 30th.

Survey of Power 360 compiled the latest electoral polls registered at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and drew a comparison with the history of government upheavals since the 1990 election, the 1st post-redemocratization. 31 turns were recorded (when the candidate who finishes the 1st round in 2nd place turn and win the dispute in the 2nd round).

History shows that the phenomenon is more common when the difference in the ballot box between competitors in the 1st round is in the range of 0.1 to 5 percentage points (17 turns in 37 disputes with this margin). And it gets rarer as the distance increases.

In the elections in which the distance was between 5 and 10 points, there were 9 occasions in which the result changed between the 1st and 2nd rounds. And only 5 elections witnessed this type of change in a scenario with an advantage greater than 10 points.

The year with the highest number of turns, proportionally, was 1998. At the time, of the 13 disputes in the 2nd round, 5 ended with the victory of the 2nd place in the 1st round of the election. Read the history since the 1990 elections in the infographic below:

Taking these margins into account, the Power 360 ranked the odds of a turnaround in state elections in high, average and lowrespectively, depending on the distances projected by the voting intentions in each of the 27 units of the Federation.

Below, an infographic with data from all 2nd round disputes since 1990, separated into 3 distance categories between the 2 highest-scoring candidates in the 1st round: from 0.1 to 5 points percentages of 5 to 10 and more than 10 points.

If the current surveys are reflected in the polls, the electoral races in Ceará and Santa Catarina concentrate the greatest chances of observing a turnaround in the 2nd round.

There is a tie both in the dispute between Captain Wagner (União Brasil) and Elmano de Freitas (PT) for the government of Ceará (31% X 31%) and in that of Carlos Moisés (Republicans) and Jorginho Mello (PL) for the government of Santa Catarina (20% X 20%). The difference, in the 2 cases, is 0 percentage point – which configures high chance turn.

Alagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo bring average expectations turn. In these states, the distance between 1st and 2nd place is up to 10 percentage points.

The case of São Paulo, the largest electoral college in the country, is on the threshold between the middle and low categories. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 31% of the voting intentions, while Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), with 21%, is tied in the margin of error with Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB), 20%.

Ibaneis Rocha (MDB-DF), Helder Barbalho (MDB-PA), Mauro Mendes (União Brasil-MS), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO) and Renato Casagrande (PSB-ES) have an advantage of more than 30 points over their respective opponents and, today, would be reelected in the 1st round with a wide margin.

The same goes for Fátima Bezerra (PT), in Rio Grande do Norte, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), in Paraná, Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicans), in Tocantins, Carlos Brandão (PSB), in Maranhão, and Gladson Cameli (PP), in Acre. Governors are more than 20 points away from the closest competitors and could also be re-elected on Sunday.

ACM Neto (União Brasil), in Bahia, and Marília Arraes (PSB), in Pernambuco, also have reduced chances of being overcome in an eventual 2nd round – although the former mayor of Salvador had the difference to Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT ) shortened throughout September.

METHODOLOGY

O Power 360 considered the latest surveys registered in the TSE in each of the Federation units. In some cases, studies of companies already consolidated in the market were prioritized, provided that the surveys were carried out at close dates.

The surveys compiled are registered with the Electoral Court in the following numbers:

B.C-03861/2022; AL-01435/2022; AP-04681/2022; AM-08091/2022; BA-05576/2022; EC-09929/2022; DF-08176/2022; ES-08455/2022; GO-09662/2022; BAD-04923/2022; MT-09789/2022; MS-01137/2022; MG-08517/2022; SHOVEL-09000/2022; PB-01979/2022; PR-07440/2022; FOOT-03933/2022; IP-08397/2022; RJ-06442/2022; RN-09487/2022; LOL-04810/2022; RO-00204/2022; RR-07152/2022; SC-07903/2022; SP-03475/2022; IF-02694/2022; and TO-09696/2022.

In case of error, send an email message: [email protected] Read the full text of all studies.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator by clicking here.

The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.

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