posted on 09/27/2022 03:00
The Ipec poll released on Monday night (26/9) shows that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a real chance of winning in the first round, with 48% of voting intentions. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 31%, a difference between the two is 17 percentage points. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 6% and Simone Tebet (MDB), 5%. Senator Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) and Novo’s candidate, Felipe D’Ávila, were left with 1%. The other candidates were mentioned, but did not reach 1% of the voting intentions. Until Sunday, we will have showers of polls, with different methodologies and contradictory results, because the environment is very volatile, with an 11% contingent of voters willing to change their vote.
So as not to rain on the wet, we are going to deal with the dispute for third place in the polls, between Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, which is very important, even if the election does not have a second round. That’s where the “shadow of the future” comes in, a concept developed by the British military to explain the behavior of British and German soldiers in the trenches of World War I, which lasted four years. It began on July 28, 1914 and ended on November 11, 1918, with the victory of the Triple Entente, formed by France, England and the United States.
The Great War involved 17 countries on five continents: Germany, Brazil, Austria-Hungary, United States, France, British Empire, Turkish-Ottoman Empire, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Kingdom of Romania, Kingdom of Serbia, Russia, Australia and China. It left 10 million soldiers dead and another 21 million wounded, in addition to the 13 million civilians who lost their lives. The conflict took on catastrophic proportions when the German army, the most modern at the time, headed towards France, passing through Belgium, which was neutral. This caused England, an ally of Russia, to declare war on Germany.
The use of new weapons, such as the plane and the tanks, caused carnage. Thousands of men died in bombings or clouds of toxic gas. In 1917, Russia withdrew from the front, and the Bolshevik revolutionaries, with the support of soldiers and sailors, seized power. In the same year, the United States entered the war on the side of England and France and against Germany. The “Great War” came to an end in 1918, with victory for the Allies. Germany was forced to cede territories and reimburse the winning countries, especially France.
War of Positions
The main tactics employed were trench warfare, or positional warfare, which aimed to protect conquered territories; and the war of movement, or advancing positions, which was more offensive and relied on heavy weapons and motorized infantry. The concept of “shadow of the future” arises mainly because of Christmas 1914, when German and British soldiers stopped fighting to celebrate Christmas, exchanged gifts and played football.
A spontaneous truce took place at various points on the battlefronts. The British General Staff studied the phenomenon and came to the conclusion that the episodes occurred because the “shadow of the future” of the soldiers, who dreamed of the end of the war and the return to civilian life, was greater than that of their rulers and military commanders. More important than winning the war was surviving in the trenches, until the armistice.
We can apply the concept to the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic. The “shadow of the future” of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, for example, is smaller than that of the other candidates, although his expectation of power is even greater than that of President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for reelection. On the eve of turning 78, if he loses the election, Lula will no longer be an alternative to power; if he wins, he may not even run for reelection. Bolsonaro, who is 67 years old, if he loses power, could lead a radical and robust opposition with a thirst for revenge.
Ciro Gomes, who will be 65 in November, although younger, runs the risk of being marginalized from politics, if his candidacy is volatilized by the “useful vote” in favor of Lula, as it will be the fourth time he has run for president, without success. . Simone Tebet, 52, will have the biggest “shadow of the future”, because she is younger. The senator will emerge from the polls as the new face of the MDB at the electoral level, even “Christianized” by the old caciques of the legend. She will be a natural leader of the moderate opposition, able to build a project for 2026, if Lula wins in the first round; if there is a second round, she may have an even more important role.