Favorites #29: see each team’s chances of winning in the Brazilian Championship round | statistical spy

Of the nine clashes that take place this Saturday, in six there is a strong contrast between the performances: four of the best hosts play at home against underperforming visitors, and two of the best foreigners travel to face underperforming hosts.

+ Check the Brazilian Championship table

Biggest favorite of the round, with a 71% win potential, Athletico-PR receives Juventude, the biggest upset of the round with 11% of chances. Palmeiras is the visitor with the greatest potential with a 41% chance of defeating Botafogo.

+ Palmeiras passes 90% of chances of Brazilian title and guarantees G-4 by the projection of the Statistical Spy

In partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi, we analyzed 90,686 shots registered by the Espião Estatístico team in 3,699 Brasileirões games since the 2013 edition, which serve as a parameter to measure the current productivity of the teams based on the goal expectation (xG), a consolidated metric. internationally (see methodology at the end of the text).

+ Return classification: Palmeiras takes the lead, Fortaleza is 3rd, and Avai and Ceará enter the Z-4

*Due to rounding, the sum of the probabilities is different from 100% — Photo: Espião Statístico

  • Great potential to be a game, as it was in the first round (Fluminense 5 x 3 Atlético-MG). Atlético-MG is the second home team with the most goals (18.0), but has the sixth lowest efficiency, one goal every 14.8 attempts, as can be seen in the art above. Fluminense is the sixth visitor with the least number of shots (12.9), with the eighth resistance, a goal conceded every 11.2 attempts. In attack, Fluminense is the opposite of Atlético-MG: the sixth visitor with the fewest shots (10.2), but the most effective, one goal every 9.4 attempts. Atlético-MG is the home team that suffers less shots (7.6), but with the least resistance to them, a goal conceded for every 6.6 contrary conclusions, a risk against a team as effective as Fluminense. Atlético-MG is the 14th home team (5 W, 4 L, 5 L, 45%); Fluminense is the fifth best visitor (5 W, 4 L, 4 L, 49%). In the last ten goals: Atlético-MG scored half from above and half from below, and Fluminense scored six from aerial plays. Atlético-MG suffered eight, and Fluminense, six, in low moves.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Internacional have not conceded a goal at home for six games (counting the Sudamericana) and of the last ten goals in their stadium, they have not conceded in eight. It will be a very interesting match because Santos has the second greatest visitor resistance, one goal conceded for every 17.6 contrary conclusions, with an average of 15.1 attempts per game, 12th defensive mark. In attack, Santos is the 13th visitor in terms of shots (10.6), with the fourth lowest efficiency, one goal every 16.4 attempts. Internacional is the ninth home team in shots conceded (10.5), with the 11th resistance, one goal conceded for every 13.4 contrary conclusions. Santos will need defensive attention because they have already had six penalties scored against, fourth worst defensive mark, and in favor of Internacional eight penalties have already been scored in favor (third highest offensive mark). Internacional is the fourth best home team (8 W, 5 L, 1 L, 69%); Santos is the 13th visitor (2 W, 6 L, 6 L, 29%). Of the last ten goals: Internacional scored and conceded six in exchanges of low passes, and Santos scored and took half on high and half on low. Internacional is the most effective home team in the Brasileirão, with a goal every 7.4 attempts and an average of 14.8 shots per match, tenth average.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • The match has the potential for a goal from Ceará on the counterattack because it is the team that has scored the most goals so far, seven, being the third team that has finished the most in these plays (57). América-MG is the fourth that suffered the most from these shots (57) and the one that conceded the most goals in counterattacks (seven). Ceará is the second worst home (3 W, 6 L, 5 D, 36%); América-MG, the 13th visitor (3 W, 3 L, 8 L, 29%). Of the last ten goals: Ceará scored six from low plays and conceded six from aerial plays, and América-MG conceded and scored half from high and half from low.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Of the last 19 home matches in all competitions, Flamengo only failed to score in one (Flamengo 0 x 0 Athletico-PR, for the Copa do Brasil). The match has potential for Flamengo to score from the air. Of the last ten goals: Flamengo scored, and Bragantino conceded six after high balls, and Bragantino scored seven from above, but Flamengo only conceded three goals that way. In two clashes in Serie A from 2006 onwards under the command of Flamengo, there was a draw and a victory for Bragantino, but this season Bragantino comes from eight games without a win (5 L, 3 L, 21%). As shown by the black line of the xG graph, in recent rounds Flamengo has imposed a threat level of 1.9 goals per match. Flamengo is the fifth best home team (8 W, 2 L, 3 L, 67%); Bragantino is the 13th visitor (2 W, 6 L, 6 L, 29%).

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Goiás will need defensive attention with counterattacks because it is the second team that has suffered the most from these shots (60) and has already conceded six goals like that (and whoever took the most took seven). Fortaleza already has seven goals in counterattacks, the highest mark in the championship, when visiting. Goiás is the 13th home team (5 W, 6 L, 3 L, 50%); Goiás, the eighth visitor (4 W, 4 L, 6 L, 38%). Of the last ten goals: Goiás scored half from high and half from low, and Fortaleza took six in low plays. In the attack, Fortaleza made seven in exchanges of low passes, but Goiás took six from aerial plays.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Avaí is the 12th home team (6 W, 4 L, 4 L, 52%); Atlético-GO, is the third worst visitor (1 W, 4 L, 9 L, 19%). Avaí has ​​already conceded four goals in counterattacks (ninth defensive mark), and Atlético-GO is the team that scored the most goals in counterattacks (seven). The low plays will demand Avaí’s attention. Of the last ten goals: Avaí conceded six, and Atlético-GO scored seven in pass exchanges. Avaí scored six from aerial plays, and Atlético-GO suffered half from the top and half from the bottom.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • It’s a game with potential for a penalty in favor of Athletico-PR because the team has already scored ten goals in its favor (second highest mark), and against Juventude seven, highest mark. Athletico-PR is the fifth best home team (7 W, 5 L, 1 L, 67%); o Juventude, the third worst visitor (1 W, 4 L, 9 L, 17%). The aerial play is a real threat to the defense of Athletico-PR. Of the last ten goals: Athletico-PR conceded, and Juventude scored seven from high balls, while the Paraná team made six in low plays, and Juventude took half in exchanges of passes and half after aerial plays.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • As shown in the black line of the xG graph, in the average of the last five rounds, the threat level of the Corinthians attack rose to 1.7 goals, and the performance of Cuiabá’s defense has been falling, with an average threat of 1.5 goals, as shows the red line. Corinthians is the best home team in the Brasileirão (9 W, 4 L, 1 L, 74%); and Cuiabá, the fifth worst visitor (3 W, 2 L, 9 D, 26%). Of the last ten goals: Corinthians scored nine and conceded eight from low plays, and Cuiabá scored and took half on the low and half on the high.

— Photo: Statistical Spy

  • On their way to confirming the Brazilian title, Palmeiras has in their favor the conquest of five victories in the 13 games played in Série A from 2006 onwards under Botafogo, which also won five. In this edition, it will be a clash of extremes: Botafogo is the fourth worst home team (4 W, 4 L, 6 L, 38%), and Palmeiras, the best visitor of the Brasileirão (8 W, 6 L, 0 L, 71 %). Of the last ten goals: Botafogo scored and conceded six in low plays. Palmeiras scored seven using high balls and suffered half from the top and half from the bottom.

Sao Paulo x coritiba >> Postponed to October 20

Favoritism presents the potential that each team carries in the Brasileirão 2022 comparing the performance in the last 60 days as home or away in all competitions and in the last six games, regardless of home. Also considered are the defensive and offensive performances of the teams in the aerial and low game. The calculations referring to the influence of high balls and the exchange of low passes between goals scored and conceded only consider the characteristics of goals scored in plays. Olympic goals, penalty kicks and direct free kicks do not count towards determining aerial or ground influence as they are kicks made directly into the goal.

We present the statistical probabilities based on the parameters of the “Expected Goals” or “Goals Expectation” (xG) model, a metric consolidated in the data analysis that has as a reference 90,686 shots registered by the Espião Statístico in 3,699 Brasileirões games since the edition of 2013. We consider the distance and angle of the shot, as well as characteristics related to the origin of the play (for example, whether it came from a cross, direct foul or a steal), the body part used, whether the shot was made first, the difference in the market value of the teams in each season, the playing time and the difference in the score at the moment of each shot.

A player’s performance is compared to the average for his position, be he attacker, midfielder, midfielder, full-back or defender, and we consider what would be expected of the shot if done with the “good foot” (the right for right-handers, the left for left-handers) and “bad foot” (the opposite). The ambidextrous ones, who kick approximately the same number of times with each foot, were identified.

Out of every hundred shots from the half-moon, for example, only seven turn into a goal. So, a half moon shot has a goal expectation (xG) of about 0.07. Each position on the field has a different expectation of a shot turning into a goal, which increases if it is a counterattack because there are fewer opponents to avoid the completion of the play. Each score is added up over the course of the match to arrive at a team’s total xG in each game.

The model used in the analysis follows a statistical distribution called Bivariate Poisson, which calculates the probabilities of events (in this case, the goals of each team) to happen within a certain time interval (the game). To arrive at the predictions about the chances of each team finishing the championship in each position, the Monte Carlo method was used, which basically relies on simulations to generate results. For each game not yet played, we run ten thousand simulations.

Favoritism also presents graphs with the evolution of the moving average in five games of the goal expectation (xG) of each team in the attack and the accumulated of what their opponents did in these games. For the graphics, every five games a moving average is made, represented by the lines of attack (black) and defense (red, which is actually how much the opponent added in xG in each game). It is an accurate way of measuring the potential of each team. The yellow line shows the difference between the attack productions of the analyzed team and that of its opponents.

*The Statistical Spy team is formed by: Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, João Guerra, Leandro Silva, Leonardo Martins, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti.

Source link

About Admin

Check Also

Netherlands side reveals psychological work in the World Cup and says: ‘There is a taboo’

Dumfries was heavily criticized at the start of the World Cup in Qatar, but he …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *