Vasco’s math for Serie A spot

Despite the title of Cruzeiro secured long in advance, Serie B should still keep tension at a high level until the last round – there are still five to go. Grêmio’s return to the elite of the Brasileirão is very close to being confirmed. The one from Bahia, well underway.

But the fourth spot in the 2023 Serie A, despite Vasco’s advantage, is still open, as the table predicts the clash between the team from São Januário and its closest pursuer: Sport.

The assessment is by mathematicians at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), responsible for the website Probabilidades no Futebol.

Today, Grêmio has 56 points and a 97.8% probability of access. Bahia, third place with 53 points, has 83.8%. Vasco (52), with 62.3%, and Sport (49), with 21.1%, follow.

Vasco and Sport face each other in a “final”

“At this moment [a 34ª rodada inicia hoje], Vasco’s main opponent is Sport. Sport faces Cruzeiro [domingo, 9/10]. And it is necessary to understand which Cruzeiro will follow in the championship”, explained to UOL Esporte Gilcione Costa, professor in the mathematics department at UFMG.

The weighting on Raposa is due to a possible drop in the concentration of the Minas Gerais team, which, in addition to the vacancy, has already secured the title of the Segundana this year. The day before yesterday (5), at home, Cruzeiro drew 1-1 with Ituano.

But what makes the fight more fierce is mainly the fact that the two main candidates for the fourth place for Serie A still have a direct confrontation. In the next round, Vasco receives Novorizontino. But, in round 35, Cruz-Maltino goes to Ilha do Retiro to face the host.

“If Sport wins Cruzeiro, the match against Vasco, at home, becomes a final”, says Gilcione. “And if you win the next two games, the tendency is for the dispute to stay open until the last round,” he adds.

Following the Segundana, the team led by Jorginho still hosts Criciúma (ninth place, with 46 points) and the packed Sampaio Corrêa (sixth, with 48 points), which is undefeated for five matches (four wins and a draw). The team from Rio still faces Ituano (seventh, with 48) in the final round. The club from the interior of São Paulo has the second best performance in the last 11 games and is only surpassed by Cruzeiro, which is undefeated in the second round of Série B.

Of the other pointers, in the next round, Bahia, at home, will face Brusque, who fights not to fall to Series C. Which makes his life less complicated.

Ituano and Sampaio Corrêa still dream

In seventh place, Ituano (48) is not out of the picture, with a 17% chance of winning a spot. Even because there is also a direct confrontation against Vasco, at home, in the last round. It has even more chance than the sixth, which is Sampaio Corrêa (48th, with one more win).

The team from Maranhão, which currently has an 11.2% chance of winning the fourth spot, visits Ituano itself, in the 36th round. Then Vasco, in the 37th. And it closes its participation against Londrina, at home. It is precisely the two games as a visitor that undermine Sampaio Corrêa’s chances of classification.

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