The ‘global warming’ hypothesis is also wrong when it comes to hurricanes

September 11th represents a sensitive moment for North Americans, but what few people know, even there, is that this date is considered by climatological data to be the day of greatest hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean, especially , in the Gulf of Mexico area and surroundings. The variation is minimal, as we check the annual data, oscillating between September 9th and 12th.

The forecast for the 2022 season, released on April 7, indicated a more active year in relation to the new climatological normal established by the data between 1991 and 2020. For systems known as “named”, that is, those that receive names, starting with the first letter of the alphabet and continuing to the end, 19 tropical cyclones were expected. As the new average is at 14.4 named systems, we would have five more, as there is no fraction of cyclones. It is worth remembering that recently, the National Hurricane Center in the USA decided to name not only hurricanes, the highest class of tropical cyclones, but also tropical storms, a class below hurricanes. August 2022, a month that should have already shown high activity, did not have tropical cyclones named in the Atlantic, as did August 1961, 1997 and four other cases since 1950.

However, for September 11, the height of the tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic, we had only five systems named up to that date, one of which, Danielle, was the first tropical cyclone to enter the hurricane class this year and it didn’t stay there for long, as, on September 8, it had already been downgraded by the National Hurricane Center. The weirdness for this year doesn’t stop there. The Danielle, in addition to being late, developed in latitudes much further north, leaving the area of ​​the tropics, closer to the equator. It ended up changing its characteristics, becoming a hybrid cyclone and, finally, almost similar to a low pressure center, typical of frontal systems. This transformation took place while wandering in a serpent’s wake over the North Atlantic, towards Europe. It ended up triggering rains from the maritime area to Northwest Africa, through the Iberian Peninsula and on to the British Isles, helping to break the drought cycle that lasted through the summer.

From a meteorological point of view, the general picture of the North Atlantic presented high air temperatures due to a greater profile of the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere from the bottom up, for almost the entire month of September. As the difference between the temperature of the air over the surface of the ocean and that of the profile is not very significant, this did not facilitate the formation of extremely voluminous clouds on the vertical axis, such as the cumulonimbus (the thunderclouds, with lightning and thunder) that are present in tropical cyclones. Thus, if we did not have this very important condition, we are beginning to understand one of the causes of the low activity of these cyclones. The specific situation presented in this September 2022 box is a typical case of natural empirical evidence of how the “global warming” hypothesis is wrong with regard to hurricanes as well. For alarmists, greater warming would bring more hurricanes, or their intensities would be greater, or all the misfortune of mixed things. In the real physical world, this is not what happens and we have seen this effect. We have to have a much higher air temperature difference between the surface and the troposphere profile for there to be deep cloud development, which was not the case at this point in the season.

This hype between the “global warming” hypothesis and hurricanes was notorious for being propagated by the former Democratic vice president of the USA. Al Gore (the one who has a mansion by the sea) who used the year 2005 as an example, as it was a very active year in the Atlantic. What they did not show, on purpose, was that, according to the climatological data, that same year 2005 was one of the lowest in the world count of tropical cyclones, that is, there was a greater number in the Atlantic, but the Pacific Ocean, the real terror in in the case of these systems, it presented a smaller number, significantly interfering in the overall calculation.

The current year 2022 presents, both in the Atlantic and in the Pacific, a very pronounced cyclonic calm, which can considerably elect it to be one of the years with the lowest number of occurrences. This conclusion is still open, but, so far, the data indicate this possibility, since, of the nine hurricanes expected for the season after 9/11, we had four, until the closing of this article (climatological average of 7.2 ). Of these four systems, two have become high-intensity hurricanes (categories CAT-3, CAT-4 and CAT-5), where four are expected by the end of the season (average of 3.2). Fiona reached CAT-4, but on the high seas, far from the coast, heading for Canada. Ian hit Cuba, causing great destruction as CAT-3 and headed north, reaching Florida on CAT-4 on September 27, being the first high-intensity ship to reach the mainland. When it comes to tropical cyclones, one is enough.

Certainly, for the year 2022, the cyclonic 9/11 did not occur. As we always say, nature doesn’t follow the statistics, so let’s wait for the news for this season that only ends on November 30th.

Also read: “The agro, the market and the supermarket”, article by Evaristo de Miranda published in Issue 133 of Revista Oeste

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