Corinthians x Flamengo: aerial ball and individual errors can decide the final of the Copa do Brasil; see analysis | Brazil’s Cup

A final that can be decided in detail. Corinthians and Flamengo enter the field next Wednesday, for the first game of the Copa do Brasil final, with some collective and individual virtues already shown in the season and that can be crucial to lift the competition trophy. (Listen to the Yes Today episode, Designing the Decision).

According to the projection prepared by Espião Statístico*, with the help of economist Bruno Imaizumi, Flamengo has slight favoritism for the first game of the decision. See the odds:

Corinthians: 32.23%
Tie: 30.38%
Flemish: 37.39%

An interesting duel between the finalists will be from above. With 52 aerial goals in 2022, Flamengo is the second team with the most high goals in Brazil this season, behind only Palmeiras (54). The red-black aerial game has its main name in Pedro. Of the 27 goals scored by the striker in 2022 at the club, 13 were over the top. He is the player with the most aerial goals for Flamengo in the year.

Corinthians is only 12th in this ranking, despite having a cast with average height. The 30 alvinegro aerial goals had the participation of 15 different athletes with at least one goal. Highlight for defender Raul Gustavo, with four. And the trio Balbuena, Yuri Alberto and Paulinho. Each scored three goals from aerial play in 2022.

— Photo: Infoesporte

If up front there haven’t been many aerial goals, Corinthians are guaranteed a lot behind. Alongside Ceará, Timão is the one who has the least trouble over the top and only conceded 19 goals in 2022. For comparison, the leaders of this list are Atlético-GO (43) and Athletico-PR (41). Flamengo also knows how to defend from the top and is the fifth team with the fewest goals conceded by the top in the year: 22.

However, despite having few aerial goals conceded in 2022, Flamengo has a big headache so far this season: individual mistakes. The elite team of Brazilian football is fired with the most decisive defensive blunders for opposing goals in the year. Of the 54 goals conceded in the season, 23 were after fault, foul or own goal. The last to miss was Diego, in the goal of Cuiabá, for the 31st round of the Brazilian Championship.

Corinthians, on the other hand, have made few individual mistakes so far this season: only five times. If it weren’t for the failures of Raul Gustavo and Mosquito for Juventude’s goals, in the 2-2 draw, for the 30th round, Timão would be the team with the fewest goals conceded after decisive errors between the Serie A clubs. Ceará, with three goals like that. See the full ranking below:

Serie A teams with the most decisive mistakes in the season

Team Failure Chicken Own goal Goals conceded with decisive errors Goals conceded in 2022 % of errors
Flamengo 18 0 5 23 54 42.59
Fluminense 11 0 3 14 62 22.58
cuiabá 10 0 two 12 55 21.82
coritiba 8 5 1 14 67 20.90
Youth 9 1 two 12 71 16.90
Botafogo 7 1 1 9 57 15.79
International 7 1 0 8 51 15.69
Strength 3 two 4 9 58 15.52
Sao Paulo 11 0 0 11 73 15.07
saints 6 0 3 9 61 14.75
Atletico-PR 8 0 two 10 70 14.29
palm trees 3 0 3 6 44 13.64
Hawaii 6 1 1 8 65 12.31
Bragantino 3 1 4 8 67 11.94
Atlético-GO 7 0 two 9 77 11.69
America-MG 4 1 1 6 61 9.84
Goiás 5 0 1 6 61 9.84
Corinthians 4 0 1 5 56 8.93
Atlético-MG 3 1 0 4 52 7.69
Ceará 3 0 0 3 42 7.14

Another point to highlight from the finalists is the power of decision as home team of both teams. Only Palmeiras has a better performance at home than the duo this season. Flamengo is 2nd (75% – L33, W23, 5L, 5L) and Corinthians is 3rd (74% – L32, W21, 8L, 3L).

At home, Timão has the best home defense in Brazil, with only 16 goals conceded – an average of 0.50 and also the team with the most games without conceding: 19 of the 32 commitments (59%).

Corinthians has the best home defense in Brazil in 2022 — Photo: Marcos Ribolli

The problem, however, is when Corinthians plays away from Itaquera. The good use at home plummets away. The team has one of the worst performances as a visitor among Serie A teams this season. It is the 6th worst, with 13 defeats in 31 games and only 34% success.

Meanwhile, Flamengo boasts the best foreign performance of the Brazilian elite in the year. That’s just seven defeats in 34 games. Palmeiras has the same advantage (64%), but Flamengo has more wins away from home: 19 to 17. In addition, the red-blacks have the best away attack of the season: 57 goals in 34 games – an average of 1, 68.

Best visitors among Serie A teams in the season

visiting club away games Visitor wins visiting draws visiting defeats Usage % Visitor
Flamengo 34 19 8 7 64%
palm trees 33 17 12 4 64%
Atlético-MG 29 14 10 5 60%
Fluminense 31 16 6 9 58%
Ceará 28 12 9 7 54%
Botafogo 24 11 5 8 53%
Goiás 27 10 9 8 48%
Strength 31 12 8 11 47%
International 28 9 12 7 46%
Sao Paulo 33 10 12 11 42%
Atlético-GO 33 11 8 14 41%
America-MG 30 10 7 13 41%
Atletico-PR 33 10 11 12 41%
cuiabá 28 9 5 14 38%
Corinthians 31 7 11 13 34%
coritiba 26 7 4 15 32%
saints 29 5 12 12 31%
Bragantino 27 4 8 15 25%
Youth 24 3 6 15 21%
Hawaii 22 1 7 14 15%

This red-black offensive power is greater precisely because Flamengo scores many goals, both at home and away. There are already 126 goals in 2022. It is the second attack with the most goals in Brazilian football – behind only Palmeiras, with 129.

The highlight goes to the attacking duo Pedro (27 goals) and Gabigol (28 goals), the team’s top scorers in the season. In addition to Arrascaeta, leader in assists in Brazilian football in 2022: 18 goal passes for Flamengo (Scarpa is the runner-up, with 17).

Pedro and Gabigol are Flamengo’s top scorers this season — Photo: Gilvan de Souza

On the Corinthians side, the offensive hopes are in the duo Yuri Alberto and Róger Guedes. In Timão’s last eight games in 2022, the two scored, together, eight goals. In addition to them, another important player in the Alvinegro offensive game is midfielder Renato Augusto, who has five goals and eight assists this season.

The trio’s performance together could be an asset for Corinthians, who lost just once with the three in the starting 11. Yuri Alberto, Róger Guedes and Renato Augusto started together in 8 games: 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (70.8% success and 16 goals scored – average of 2 per game). The only defeat was for Palmeiras, by 1 to 0, for the 22nd round of the Brasileirão.

Róger Guedes, Renato Augusto and Yuri Alberto have only 1 defeat when they started as starters for Corinthians in 2022 — Photo: Marcello Zambrana/AGIF

With their cards on the table, Corinthians and Flamengo will face each other this Wednesday, at 9:45 pm, at the Neo Química Arena. The final duel is scheduled for the 19th, at the same time, at Maracanã.

* The Statistical Spy team is formed by: Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, João Guerra, Leandro Silva, Leonardo Martins, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti.

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