There are only three rounds left for the end of Série B of the Brazilian Championship and 17 clubs are still fighting for ‘places’, either for access or to avoid relegation to Série C. With the situation defined are only Cruzeiro, which has already risen and won the title, in addition to CRB and Ponte Preta, who cannot rise or fall any further. The complement of the 35th round of Serie B of the Brazilian Championship was hot and left Grêmio, Bahia and Vasco very close to returning to Serie A.
The G4 has been the same since the 13th round and is well on its way to staying that way until the end of the competition. With Cruzeiro already guaranteeing in the elite, Grêmio is the closest to access, which could happen in the 36th round, once again against Náutico. Stage of the game that marked the access of the club in 2005, the Estádio dos Aflitos, in Recife, will receive the Tricolor again for a match worth a vacancy in Serie A, but this time only for the gauchos.
Grêmio need to win and count on a stumbling block from Sport, which visits Londrina. Without looking at other games, the gaucho club needs five of the nine points they will play. Náutico, on the other hand, has remote chances of avoiding relegation, so much so that it can enter the field already relegated to Series C. The game with Grêmio is scheduled for Sunday (23) and the fall could happen on Friday (21), if Chapecoense scores at home against Tombense.
Bahia is also in a comfortable position and, like Grêmio, can guarantee access in the next round. Tricolor hosts Vila Nova, at Fonte Nova, and needs to win and count on stumbling blocks from Sport and Sampaio Corrêa, in addition to the draw in the duel between Ituano and Criciúma. In order not to depend on third parties, two more victories are enough for Bahia.
Despite the 1-1 draw with Sport, Vasco was the big winner of the 35th round. The point conquered in Ilha do Retiro, in the game that ended after the invasion of the local fans to the lawn, held a direct competitor and left Cruz-Maltino depending only on their own results. Of the three games that remain, two will be in São Januário. Vasco only has a chance to guarantee access from the 37th round, but even then it depends on a combination of results to advance early. The team directed by Jorginho needs to add seven points out of nine to depend on the stumbling blocks of the competitors.
Sport, Sampaio Corrêa, Criciúma, Ituano and Londrina are still in the fight for access, but from afar. They need to score a lot and still count on defeats from clubs that are within the G4.
The fight against relegation is also well underway. Of the nine clubs that still have some chance of falling, three of them have remote chances, which are less than 1%. Cases of Tombense (0.012%), Guarani (0.005%) and Vila Nova (0.001%), which need an almost unlikely combination to return to the Brazilian Series C.
Which really puts six clubs in the fight against sticking, with four of them having more than a 96% chance of falling. So much so that all four relegations can be defined in this round, in case of triumphs for Chapecoense and Novorizontino combined with a defeat for CSA and a draw for Operário-PR.
Check below how the fights for access and against relegation are going, as well as the probability for each of the Serie B clubs and the final games of each of them, in the survey carried out by UOL Esporte with the numbers from the website Probabilidades no Futebol, from the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
Gremio – 2nd place
Probability of access – 97.1%
Upcoming games – Náutico (away), Tombense (away) and Brusque (home)
Bahia – 3rd place
Probability of access – 96.1%
Upcoming games – Vila Nova (home), Guarani (home) and CRB (away)
Vasco – 4th place
Probability of access – 77.9%
Upcoming games – Criciúma (home), Sampaio Corrêa (home) and Ituano (away)
Sport – 5th place
Probability of access – 8.5%
Upcoming games – Londrina (away), Operário (home) and Vila Nova (away)
Sampaio Correa – 6th place
Probability of access – 5.2%
Upcoming games – Ituano (away), Sampaio Corrêa (away) and Londrina (home)
Criciúma – 7th place
Probability of access – 6.7%
Upcoming games – Vasco (away), Ponte Preta (away) and Tombense (home)
Ituano – 8th place
Probability of access – 7.4%
Upcoming games – Sampaio Corrêa (home), Londrina (away) and Vasco (home)
London – 9th place
Probability of access – 1.1%
Upcoming games – Sport (home), Ituano (home) and Sampaio Corrêa (away)
Nautical – 20th place
Falling probability – 99.83%
Upcoming games – Grêmio (home), Chapecoense (away) and Ponte Preta (home)
Brusque – 19th place
Probability of falling – 98.8%
Upcoming games – Novorizontino (home), CRB (home) and Grêmio (away)
Worker-PR – 18th place
Falling probability – 98.3%
Upcoming games – CRB (away), Sport (away) and Novorizontino (home)
CSA – 17th place
Falling probability – 96.1%
Upcoming games – Ponte Preta (away), Vila Nova (home) and Cruzeiro (away)
Chapecoense – 16th place
Falling probability – 3.7%
Upcoming games – Tombense (home), Náutico (home) and Guarani (away)
Novorizontino – 15th place
Falling probability – 3.2%
Upcoming games – Brusque (away), Cruzeiro (home) and Operário (away)