The dollar closed down this Friday (21), in view of the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank of the United States) may slow down the pace of increase in the country’s interest rate.
The US currency retreated 1.36% to R$5.1468. It is the lowest price since September 22, when it closed at R$ 5.1147. See more quotes.
On the previous day, the currency retreated 1.08%, quoted at R$ 5.2175. With today’s result, it accumulated a drop of 3.31% in the week, 4.58% in the month and 7.68% in the year against the real.
What is messing with the markets?
Investors found some comfort in a Wall Street Journal report that says the U.S. central bank will begin debating plans to slow its pace of monetary tightening in December, after a likely fourth straight 0.75 percentage point rise in interest rates in its November meeting.
This expectation was confirmed by the speech of the president of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, Mary Daly. He said on Friday that it was time for the US central bank to start talking about slowing the pace of borrowing cost increases.
Higher interest rates in the US make the US fixed income market more profitable, which generally attracts foreign funds and benefits the dollar globally.
An eventual deceleration in the pace of tightening is seen as harmful to the US currency, especially in relation to emerging country pairs, which offer higher returns.
In Brazil, the Selic rate is currently at 13.75%, a level that makes the real very attractive for “carry trade” strategies, which consist of borrowing in a low-interest country and investing these resources in a market with higher returns. .
In the domestic scenario, the focus remains on the political scenario, eight days before the second round of elections for the Presidency of the Republic and for some state governments.
On Wednesday night (19), Datafolha released yet another poll of voting intentions. According to the data, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 49% of voters’ preference, while current president Jair Bolsonaro has 45%. In the case of valid votes, Lula has 52% and Bolsonaro, 48%.
Back on the international scene, another point worth mentioning is the political tensions in the United Kingdom. Marcelo Boragini, partner at Davos Investimentos, said, in an interview with Reuters, that “the market remains attentive to the situation in Europe and the political crisis in the United Kingdom, after the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truzz”.
The day before, Truss announced she would step down as Britain’s prime minister after just six weeks in power, toppled by an economic tax-cut program that has shaken markets and split her Conservative Party.
While the departure of an already discredited leader was greeted on Thursday as a source of relief for some investors, rising uncertainty over who will be the next prime minister of one of the world’s biggest financial centers has taken a sharper toll on mood. globally this Friday.