New York futures indexes operate lower after the previous high, while European and Asian stock markets operate in mixed this Tuesday (25), with global investors evaluating the prospects for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy (BC dos USA) and waiting for big tech balance sheets in search of more clues about the health of the American economy.
Microsoft (MSFT34) and Alphabet, owner of Google (GOGL34), will release results today (25), after the markets close.
So far, companies have fared better than anticipated. That’s partly because analysts’ earnings estimates have slipped in recent months as companies grappled with currency headwinds, inflation and other growth concerns.
Here, attention will be focused on the preview of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15), referring to October, which will come out at 9 am (Brasilia time). The average of analysts consulted by Refinitiv points to an increase of 0.05% on a monthly basis and 6.75% on an annual basis. Earlier, consumer confidence data for October come out.
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Still on the economic front, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Brazilian Central Bank begins its penultimate meeting of the year today (25th), with the decision announced on Wednesday. The expectation is to maintain the Selic at 13.75%.
In the corporate field, after an operational preview by Petrobras (PETR4) the day before, investors are waiting for the release of the balance sheets of Telefônica (VIVT3), Neoenergia (NEOE3) and Indústrias Romi (ROMI3), after the markets close.
On the political side, Minister Alexandre Moraes demanded evidence of Bolsonaro’s campaign accusation that radio stations privilege PT in 24-hour insertions. It is worth noting that, the day before, the Ibovespa had a strong correction a few days before the end of the presidential race, with a drop of 3.27%, while the shares of state-owned companies such as Petrobras and Bank of Brazil collapsed between 9% and 10%. The fall was due to the repercussion of the case of former deputy Roberto Jefferson (PTB), a Bolsonaro supporter, who fired rifle shots and threw grenades at federal police officers who were serving an arrest warrant against him.
1. World Scholarships
New York index futures operate lower this morning on Tuesday (25), as investors await results from big tech companies looking for more clues about the health of the US economy.
Investors are keeping an eye on earnings at the biggest tech companies this week, with earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft today.
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General Electric, Coca-Cola and General Motors are expected to release results before markets open.
In indicators, at 10 am, real estate data by S&P Global in August gives an idea of how this sector is in the country, the projection is for a high of 14.4%, after prices rose 16.1% in July. Later, at 11 am, there is the Consumer Confidence CB for October, with a consensus of 106.5, compared to 108 in September.
See the performance of futures markets:
- Dow Jones Future (USA), -0.49%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.46%
- Nasdaq Future (USA), -0.28%
Most Asian markets closed close to stability, with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei, which rose more than 1% after the conclusion of China’s party congress and the release of a series of delayed economic data.
On the economic front, Singapore inflation rose 7.5% in September, with core inflation rising 5.3%, official data showed on Tuesday.
- Shanghai SE (China), -0.04%
- Nikkei (Japan), +1.02%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -0.10%
- Kospi (South Korea), -0.05%
European markets operate with no clear direction on Tuesday, as market participants look to prospects for monetary policy and corporate earnings.
Major companies like HSBC, UBS, Novartis, Randstad, Air Liquide, SAP and Covestro released earnings today.
The day before, the quick decision by the United Kingdom to quickly choose Liz Truss’ replacement gave some tranquility to the European market, which closed higher. The nominee was Rishi Sunak.
- FTSE 100 (UK), -0.43%
- DAX (Germany), -0.27%
- CAC 40 (France), +0.30%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.15%
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, adding to yesterday’s losses, while weaker US business activity data dampened expectations of more aggressive interest rate hikes in the world’s largest economy.
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US business activity contracted for the fourth straight month in October, with purchasing managers reporting weaker customer demand.
That weakening could indicate that the Fed’s interest rate hikes to fight inflation are working and could persuade it to ease its rate-raising policies, a positive sign for fuel demand.
Iron ore prices on the Dalian Stock Exchange fall again after a slight increase in the previous session, reaching a seven-week low, while prices in Singapore fell below US$ 89 a tonne, with the Chinese steel demand season. coming to an end with a disappointing result.
- WTI crude, -0.58% at $84.09 a barrel
- Brent crude, -0.56% at $92.74 a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Exchange was down 1.90% to 669.50 yuan, equivalent to US$91.60
- Bitcoin, -0.36% to $19,291.29 (from 24 hours ago)
The preview of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15), referring to October, will be released today. Itaú forecasts an increase of 0.09% in the monthly comparison, taking the annual rate to 6.8%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Brazilian BC starts its penultimate meeting of the year today (25th). At the previous meeting, held just over a month ago, it interrupted the Selic high cycle and kept the interest rate at 13.75%. The decision was not unanimous.
8:00 am: October consumer poll
9 am: October IPCA-15, Refinitiv consensus points to an increase of 0.05% compared to September and 6.75% on an annual basis
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9:00 am: Election polls – Abrapel/Ipespe
9:00 am: Election polls – Paraná Pesquisas
10:00 am: First session of the Copom Meeting
10:30 am: Auction of National Treasury bonds
11am: Richmond Fed Industrial Survey
11am: Consumer confidence
2pm: 2-year Treasuries primary auction
5:30 pm: Weekly oil stocks – API
3. Economic news
Copom starts penultimate meeting of the year to define Selic rate
Amid the impacts of a possible recession in the United States and the behavior of inflation in Brazil, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) begins today (25) the seventh meeting of the year to define the basic interest rate , Selic. Tomorrow (26), at the end of the day, the Copom will announce the decision.
According to the most recent edition of the Focus bulletin, a weekly survey with market analysts, the Selic rate should be maintained at 13.75% per year for the second time in a row. Market analysts expect the rate to remain at that level until mid-2023.
Brazil records highest spending by foreign tourists since 2016
Visitors from other countries left US$ 416 million in Brazil in September, according to data released by the Central Bank on Monday (24). It was the highest index for the month since September 2016, the year of the Rio de Janeiro Olympic and Paralympic Games, which recorded US$446 million in revenue.
Between January and September of this year, accumulated spending by foreigners exceeded US$ 3.6 billion, surpassing the rates recorded throughout 2021 and 2020. In 2022, January, March and August were better than September. The record was set in March, when foreign tourists spent US$ 453 million in Brazil. In January the value was US$ 421 million, while August recorded US$ 431 million.
4. Political news
Moraes asks for evidence of Bolsonaro’s campaign accusation that radios privilege PT in 24-hour insertions
The campaign of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for reelection, filed, on Monday, a lawsuit with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) alleging that radio stations broadcast inserts of the president in a volume lower than that established in distribution by the Justice. Electoral.
The legal team of Bolsonaro’s campaign says that broadcasters did not properly broadcast the planned insertions and insinuates favoring former President Lula (PT).
The president of the TSE, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, stated that there is no evidence in the thesis presented by the Bolsonaro campaign and opened a period of 24 hours for applicants to show documents that prove the alleged favoring of Lula’s campaign.
STF judges TSE ‘superpowers’ today against ‘fake news’
Rosa Weber, president of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), scheduled for this Tuesday the trial on a decision by Minister Edson Fachin who denied a request by the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, to overturn the resolution that gives “superpowers” to the Superior Court. Electoral Council (TSE) in the fight against fake news.
The trial will take place in the virtual plenary of the Supreme, from midnight on Tuesday and goes until 23:59. Through this format, STF ministers enter their votes on the court’s electronic platform.
Last week, the TSE passed a resolution that extends the court’s own powers to remove fake news from the networks.
Lula maintains leadership with 50% of the total votes in the second round; Bolsonaro has 43%, points out Ipec
Less than a week before the second round, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for reelection, show no oscillations in the levels of voting intentions in the dispute for the Planalto Palace, according to an Ipec survey released yesterday.
The survey, carried out between the 22nd and 24th of October, shows that Lula has 50% of the total voting intentions. Bolsonaro appears with 43%. Voters who say they vote blank or null make up 5% of respondents, while 2% did not know or preferred not to respond. The institute’s estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points up or down.
Considering only valid votes (that is, excluding blank, null and undecided votes), Lula would have 54%, and Bolsonaro, 46%.
Brazil recorded this Monday (24) 33 deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours, totaling 687,713 since the beginning of the pandemic.
With this, the moving average of deaths in the last 7 days is 60. Compared to the average of 14 days ago, the variation was -13%, indicating a stability trend for the third day in a row.
In total, the country recorded 4,063 new diagnoses of Covid-19 in 24 hours, completing 34,834,815 known cases since the beginning of the pandemic.
Petrobras’ total oil and gas production totaled 2.644 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in the third quarter of 2022, down 6.6% from a year earlier and down 0.3% from the second quarter. this year, due to shutdowns for maintenance and the entry of partners in important assets.
Suzano (SUZB3) announced the signing of a contract for the acquisition of all the shares held by KC Brasil in a new company that will own the assets related to the business of manufacturing, marketing, distributing and/or selling tissue products in the country , such as toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, handkerchiefs, as well as other paper products, including ownership of the “Neve” brand. The value of the transaction was not disclosed.
As part of the deal, the other global brands currently used by KC Brasil will be licensed to the Company for a fixed term.
The Board of Directors of Méliuz (CASH3) authorized the initiation of a study to separate its operations from payment solutions and banking as a service and that it operates using the “Bankly” brand, with the possibility of listing its shares as a company independent.
“The purpose of the transaction is to unlock the full potential of the company’s payment and banking solutions businesses, allowing them to operate autonomously, with separate administration and focus on their respective business models and market opportunities,” the statement reads.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)