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The home defeat for the cuiabá and the other results of the 35th round of the Brazilian championship made the chances of the Botafogo dispute the next Liberators from 2023 drop to just 4.2%, according to calculations by the website “Chance de Gol”. In the previous round, they were at 19.7%.
There are now just three games to go, and Botafogo is in 11th place, with 47 points, four behind the G-8. And Glorioso will have three direct confrontations against candidates for the spot in Libertadores: Atlético-MG (Monday, in Mineirão), saints (at home) and Atletico-PR/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>Athetico-PR (in Arena da Baixada).
After the 35th round games, only three spots are open, one for the group stage and two for the “pre-Libertadores”. Athletico-PR (94.0%) and Atlético-MG (90.7%) have situations well underway, and the Sao Paulo would be the favorite for the last spot, with a 57.7% chance.
Ahead of Botafogo by calculations are Strength (24.3%), America-MG (19.6%) and Santos (9.2%). With remote chances appear Red Bull Bragantino (0.3%) and Goiás (almost 0%).
South American
Botafogo is not yet classified mathematically in the Copa Sudamericana, missing just one dot to guarantee the spot. Discounting the chances of going to Libertadores, Glorioso now has a 94.3% chance of winning the classification for Sula-2023, according to the “Chance of Goal”.
📊 Libertadores chances according to “Goal Chance”:
| CLUB | PG | % LIBERATORS | GAMES LEFT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-PR | 54 | 94.0% | INT (f), ACG (f) and BOT (c) |
| Atlético-MG | 52 | 90.7% | BOT (c), CUI (c) and COR (f) |
| Sao Paulo | 51 | 57.7% | FLU (f), INT (c) and GOI (f) |
| America-MG | 49 | 19.6% | RBB (f), PAL (f) and ACG (c) |
| Strength | 48 | 24.3% | ACG (c), RBB (c) and SAN (f) |
| BOTAFOGO | 47 | 4.2% | CAM (f), SAN (c) and CAP (f) |
| saints | 46 | 9.2% | AVA (c), BOT (f) and FOR (c) |
| RB Bragantino | 44 | 0.3% | AME (c), FOR (f) and FLU (c) |
| Goiás | 43 | ~0% | JUV (c), FLU (f), SAO (c) |
