The midterms, midterm elections in the United States, surprised those who follow the international political news by not giving President Joe Biden the crushing defeat that was predicted. The result is negative for former President Donald Trump, who failed to place some of his main bets. A new heir of Trumpism is consolidated, and the states will become more diverse. Understand, below, the main points of the American election.
1) The Republican wave is not as strong as thought
Although the investigation has not been completed, one thing is already taken for granted: the Republican “red wave” that polls pointed out as likely in Congress is not likely to arrive as strongly as it has in other Democratic terms.
In 2010, in Barack Obama’s first midterms, Republicans turned over 63 seats to the party. At the beginning of the Bill Clinton administration in 1994, Republicans won 54 seats. Today Republicans have 212 seats in the House and need 2018 to control the House. Any result below 20 new seats this year has been seen as a bad result for the party.
In the Senate, Republicans may not win a majority either. All this makes the numbers so far much better than what President Joe Biden expected.
The result is especially bad for Donald Trump, who has seen some of his bets lost, not only in the Legislature, but also in state governments such as Pennsylvania (Doug Mastriano), Wisconsin (Tim Michels) and Michigan (Tudor Dixon).
2) Abortion and inflation decided the lawsuit
The two most important issues of this election for voters, according to all major exit polls, were the economic situation in the United States and ensuring access to abortion.
Inflation, currently at 8.2% in the 12-month period, a historically high level, tends to punish the Democratic Party, which is in power. On the other hand, the defense of abortion rights, after the Supreme Court authorized states in June to ban the practice, mobilized a legion of voters even in conservative states to vote for Democratic candidates.
Pennsylvania, for example, a swing state, which has no clear preference for Democrats or Republicans, has elected Democrats to the government and Senate. There, 35% of voters cited abortion as the most important issue today, and 29% inflation, according to NBC.
In addition, Michigan, California and Vermont approved this Tuesday amendments that add to the local constitutions the right to voluntary termination of pregnancy.
3) Ron DeSantis comes out stronger, and Florida, more Republican
The landslide re-election of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, nearly 20 points ahead of second place, confirms the Republican as one of the strongest figures in Donald Trump’s party – and a threat to the former president’s aspirations to return to office.
As much as Republicans have been in command of the state since the election of Jeb Bush in 1999, since 2006 the margin of victory for Republicans has been no more than double digits. DeSantis’s victory not only consolidates him within the party, it reinforces that Florida, once a swing state, is increasingly clearly identified with the Republican Party.
4) 2020 Deniers Gain Space, But Lost in Key Posts
More than 210 Republican candidates contesting the 2020 election were elected in the midterms, according to monitoring by The New York Times with data available as of Wednesday morning, something that could impact the 2024 presidential election. Marjorie Taylor Greene, denier and disseminator of the QAnon conspiracies, and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. There were important defeats, however.
In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano lost the gubernatorial election, as did the ultraconservative political commentator Tudor Dixon in Michigan, both supported by former President Donald Trump.
5) States elect women for the first time
At least two states will have female governors for the first time in their history. In Massachusetts, the public elected Maura Healey, 51, who will also be the country’s first openly lesbian governor. The US may still elect another lesbian woman in these midterms, Democrat Tina Kotek, who is running for governor of Oregon — the outcome has yet to be defined.
Another state that elected a woman for the first time was Arkansas, where Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a spokeswoman for the White House during the Trump administration, was victorious. She is the daughter of Mike Huckabee, who was governor of the same state for ten years.
The state of Vermont elected for the first time a woman to Congress, Democrat Becca Balint. Vermont was the last state in the country that had not yet elected women to the federal legislature.
6) Maryland will have first black governor
In Maryland, Wes Moore will be the state’s first black governor and the third elected in the country’s history — the first being Douglas Wilder (1990-1994), in Virginia, and Deval Patrick (2007-2015), in Massachusetts. With a trajectory in the investment market, the Democrat, who is also a writer and television producer, will replace the popular Larry Hogan, also from the Democratic Party.
7) Senate has indigenous representative again after almost two decades
Republican Representative Markwayne Mullin, who is of Indian origin, was elected senator for the state of Oklahoma. Mullin is officially a member of the Cherokee Nation. The US has had four senators with indigenous roots. The last of them, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, left office in 2005. Oklahoma once had another Indian senator, Robert Owen (1907-1925), also from the Cherokee Nation.
8) Generation Z will have a representative in Parliament
The youngest member of this legislature will be Democrat Maxwell Frost, who is 25, the minimum age allowed for a seat in the House. He was elected by Florida and has been described as the first generation Z congressman — whom he made a point of thanking. “WE WON!!!! History was made tonight. We made history for Florida residents, Gen Z and everyone who believes we deserve a better future,” he wrote on Twitter as he celebrated the victory.
9) AOC’s ‘Squad’ gets re-elected
The so-called ‘Squad’, a group of deputies from the left and representatives of minorities whose maximum exponent is Democrat Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (New York), was all re-elected. In addition to AOC, as she is known, Ilhan Omar (Minnesota), Ayanna Pressley (Massachusetts), Rashida Tlaib (Michigan), Cori Bush (Missouri) and Jamaal Bowman (New York) will continue to occupy Congress.
Other names can endorse the group, such as Greg Casar, elected in Texas; Summer Lee, Pennsylvania; Delia Ramirez of Illinois; and Maxwell Frost himself, Florida’s youngest.
10) Trans man is elected for the first time to a position in the Legislature
The state of New Hampshire on Tuesday elected James Roesener as state representative, the first trans man elected to such a position in the country, according to the LGBTQ Victory Fund, a group that promotes the inclusion of LGBTQIA+ people in politics. The Democrat is 26 years old.