Trump starts ahead in the race against Biden in 2024, but must face strong opponents in his party

Former US president announced his candidacy for the presidency this week and stirred US politics before the end of the midterm election polls.

ALON SKUY / AFPtrump candidacy
Donald Trump announces candidacy to run for president in 2024

former president of United States🇧🇷 donald trump moved the country’s politics by announcing, before the end of the ‘midterms’, a mid-term election that decides which party will have a majority in the House of Representatives and in the Senate, which will run for President in 2024. The announcement contradicted advisors and allies of the candidates and it was done at a time when Trump is weakened, as it was not possible to implement the “red wave” that was being idealized before the elections, it came with the promise of making the country great again. “To make America great and glorious again, I announce tonight my candidacy for president,” Trump said, minutes after delivering the official document to the country’s electoral authority. The early announcement of Trump’s candidacy is seen as an attempt to stay ahead of other Republicans, such as the re-elected governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who appears among the favorite names of the acronym to run for President, and avoid possible criminal charges for investigations of which he is the subject, such as the invasion of the Capitol. “I will make sure Joe Biden doesn’t get another four years,” Trump promised, while the president responded on Twitter: “Donald Trump has failed the United States.” Despite the weakening due to the midterms, specialists consulted by the Young pan point out that he is still a threat to Joe Biden and that if the elections were held today, there would be chances that he would emerge victorious.

“Trump still has a loyal following. Maybe if today we had an election between Trump and Joe Biden, he could take back command of the USA”, says Igor Lucena, doctor in international relations. “Trump managed to make his ideology dominant, he managed to make the Republican Party become a Trumpist party”, explains Guilherme Thudium, doctor in international strategic studies at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). “Trump has taken over the Republican Party primarily because of its capacity for mass mobilization,” he added. Despite the strength he still has, Trump announced the pre-candidacy with several potential downsides. He is the target of several investigations for his conduct before, during and after his term as president, which could result in his ineligibility. The republican is also being investigated for alleged fraud in the family companies, for his role in the attack of his supporters on the Capitol in January 2021, for his attempt to annul the 2020 elections and for hiding confidential documents in Mar-a-Lago. For these reasons, there are those who bet that the announcement of Trump’s candidacy for the presidency was a strategy to stop the investigations against him.

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“The Republicans, now in control of the House of Representatives, can make the investigations go away. He may be announcing his candidacy to bring these investigations to a close,” begins Lucena. The expert warns that the Department of Justice may feel “embarrassed to continue with investigations with a pre-candidate with such a strong capacity”. “If Trump manages to delay these investigations and enter an election or pre-election period, he can claim that he is suffering political persecution,” he adds. For these reasons, Lucena assesses that “it was not a candidacy launch by chance, there is a strategy with several interests, outside the very scope of the election”. Some wonder if Trump, with his style of politics and his legal problems, is the right person to represent the party in 2024. These problems faced by Trump and the blow suffered by Republicans in the midterms, opened margin for new leaderships to gain space to run for the Presidency. The former president has several strong rivals for the 2024 primaries, in particular the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantiswho won a resounding victory in his re-election on November 8.

For Thudium, the former president did not lose favoritism so much, but “was weakened from the elections and generated space for new leaderships that had not yet been envisioned”. One of his biggest difficulties in this new candidacy is winning the primaries. However, despite being a challenge, the doctor in international strategic studies sees a slight advantage in Trump over the others. “He has already been tested twice at the national level and has shown that Trumpism remains solid. ORepublicans, as much as they miss the more professional republicanism that Trump ignores, there is also an intention to return to power, and many have already shown that they would support him”, he says. Republicans have failed in an attempt to wrest control of the Senate from Democrats and are expected to have a slim majority in the House, contrary to expectations on the eve of the elections. Still, despite being dropped by several major Republican donors, Trump has already raised $100 million. At the moment, DeSantis looks like Trump’s main rival in the Republican Party, in a race that could also include former Vice President Mike Pence, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Lucena points out that Trump must face some difficulties in this new candidacy, mainly because he is betting on an old plan. “He is betting on the same strategy that failed and does not have a great national strategy for change from the work point of view”, she says. He adds, however, that Republicans can take advantage of winning the House, because “the midterms were a kind of signal from American society that the Biden administration is not doing well and that a change will be made if they continue in that position. negative and denialist. The population is not satisfied with the course of the economy”.

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