There are many Brazilians with a smile on their face after Argentina lost in the opening match of the World Cup last Tuesday (22). In that first game, luck was not on our side. brothersbut it seems that, throughout the Worlds, mathematics is.
XP’s quantitative team released a report last week in which it places the Latin American country as having the best chances of winning the title. The result was achieved through the multinomial logistic regressionwhich unlike the traditional binary scenario, where you win or lose, it is possible to win, lose or tie.
“We took 820 games from 2010 to mid-2022 to train our model. The idea is that, with the results of the games, added to the metrics, we can apply them to games that have not yet taken place”, explains Júlia Aquino, quantitative analyst at XP, in episode number 173 of Stock Pickers.
25,000 simulations were carried out, which include the matches already defined and the simulation of all games from the knockout stages to the final. The numbers are in the table below:
Even though Argentina’s debut contradicted the statistics, Julia reiterates that even if an event has a low probability of happening, it doesn’t mean it can’t happen: “99.99% is not 100%”.
Football defying logic
Completing Júlia’s speech, Mauro Beting, journalist, columnist, sports commentator and the other guest of the episode, says that in football the numbers can indicate something, but they do not determine anything.
In Beting’s experience, the sport constantly defies logic, due to its fluidity and countless factors that at the time can influence even the scenarios that seemed more accurate.
“A case example of a player like Robert Lewandowski, who was the best in the world in 2020/21, with 630 career goals. He reached his 4th appearance in the Cup without ever having scored one and missing a penalty”, he said, referring to the missed goal during Poland’s match against Mexico last Tuesday.
World Cup Sponsors
Bringing the debate to the side of the companies, Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP, assesses that, for businesses in the sporting goods and beverages sector, the World Cup is the most anticipated event of all.
“If you take other major sporting events into account, they don’t have the same impact in terms of consumption as the World Cup. The impact is far greater than the cold numbers indicate,” he explains.
Relationship with the Cup
“The World Cup is my life because it was also almost my death”. This is how Mauro Beting described his relationship with the tournament.
According to Beting, in 1970, his father forgot that he, at the time only three years old, was in his lap and threw him forward in celebration of Jairzinho do Brasil’s goal against England – the balance was a blackout in memory.
Coincidence or chance, the emptiness of the 70 World Cup was filled by the passion that has been his job for years.
Watch the full episode in the video above or listen on podcast platforms.