The month of December, before us, is perhaps the longest in recent times. It is the month of a very charged political transition.
The anxieties are similar to those of the New Republic: there are close to 300 people in the transition groups, serving as nests for future ministers and government policies. There are another 300 with aspirations, without opening hours in Brasilia, but there are only about 50 positions (?) to be filled in the first step.
The frustration rate, for people and ideas, is going to be high.
The international environment is not at all good, and there is an old enchantment in Brasilia that should not be lost sight of: those responsible for economic policy become more intelligent when the international situation is favorable. In the presence of clouds, there are always more errors.
On the positive side, one should not forget that this was the first election, and change of government, under the new law that made the Central Bank more independent, as the mandates of its directors no longer coincide with those of the President of the Republic. Roberto Campos Neto and three other BC directors will remain in their positions within the new government.
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This change removed the risk of politicizing monetary policy. So much so that the BC showed no hesitation in fulfilling its mission even during the election year: interest rates were raised to the level necessary to control dangerous inflation, which seemed to be spreading in an organism that was very sensitive to the incentive provided by various drug dealers, always prowling around the world. old customer.
We are going to end 2022 with inflation below 6%, a level significantly lower than that of most countries in the Northern Hemisphere, and nothing comparable with what we have in Argentina and Venezuela. We left Conmebol for the Champions League on this topic.
It’s clear that we don’t have a cursed inheritance, and what’s more: in the next two years we have already contracted a continuous (?) fall in interest rates, with the known effects, unless the new government loses control of the fiscal accounts, which it can always happen.
Tax denialism is widespread in Brasilia: the reader of this column may recognize this expression, from an article from the end of April, regarding the populist and irresponsible tendencies exhibited by the government at the time, which led to the so-called Kamikaze PEC that was finally approved shortly afterwards. including the opposition vote, which today is (almost) the government.
Tax denialism is politically correct (woke): “Wouldn’t it always be necessary, convenient and photogenic to doubt the scarcity (of resources), and heroically explore the possibility of realizing all dreams, despite the (im)possibilities?”
So it is. It will be hard to resist.