Senegal goes against the odds and advances in the Cup; Holland confirms favoritism

The selection of Senegal upset the odds (and the stakes), defeated the Ecuador 2-1 and advanced to the round of 16 of the World Cup in Qatar. Already the Netherlands confirmed its favoritism, by defeating the already eliminated Qatar 2-0, and qualified in 1st place in group A.

Now, Netherlands and Senegal await the results of the 16:00 matches, between Will x USA and Wales x England🇧🇷 The four teams have a chance of qualifying, but England and United States are the favorites, according to the odds of 3 online sportsbooks (bet365, sportingbet and betfair).

As of this Tuesday (29), the games of the same group will be held at the same time, at 12:00 and 16:00, no longer at 4 different times (at 7:00, 10:00, 13:00 and 16:00). This is to avoid combinations of results that could favor / harm a selection, since the third round games of the group stage define which teams will advance to the round of 16.

Holland confirms favoritism

The most favorite selection of the day was from Netherlandswhich took the already eliminated Qatar🇧🇷 Vitória de Netherlands paid very low odds, between 1.20 and 1.22 (the lower this value, the more favorite a team is). The draw paid odds of at least 6.00 and an unlikely victory for the home team, of up to 14.00.

This means that if a person bets BRL 100 on the Dutch win, he or she wins the BRL 100 back plus BRL 20 or BRL 22 at most (depending on which site they bet on). On the other hand, a gambler who put R$ 100 in the Qatari victory could win up to 13x the money invested (which was very unlikely).

(SAP key: an odd is the quotation of the value that a bettor wins if he hits his guess. Implicitly, it indicates the probability of a certain result happening.)


netherlands vs qatar Odds
Result bet365 sportingbet betfair
Holland victory 1.22 1.22 1.20
A tie 6.50 6.00 6.50
Qatar victory 12.00 13.00 14.00

Senegal beats Ecuador (and the odds)

O Ecuador was also a favorite in his game, according to the implied odds in the bets placed on the 3 sites consulted, but who qualified was Senegal🇧🇷 It is true that the favoritism of the South American team was much lower than that of Netherlands against Qataras winning paid odds of up to 2.40.

the victory of Senegal paid odds between 3.10 and 3.25 and the tie, odds between 3.00 and 3.20. This means that the least likely outcome happened (the tie also favored the classification of the Ecuadorbecause only victory was of interest to the Senegalese, since it was practically impossible for Qatar thrash the Netherlands🇧🇷

Ecuador vs Senegal Odds
Result bet365 sportingbet betfair
victory of ecuador 2.37 2.40 2.40
A tie 3.20 3.10 3.00
Senegal victory 3.25 3.10 3.25

The odds of group B

In the 4pm games, the odds indicate that the England and the United States must qualify in group B. The English are very favorites against their neighbors in the United Kingdom, while the Americans are only favorites against the Iranians (and not very much).

victory of England pays odds of 1.44 in the 3 bookmakers consulted, while the tie pays between 4.20 and 4.40 and a win for Wales, between 7.75 and 8.50. In the other match of group B, victory of USA pays odds of up to 2.00. A tie pays from 3.25 and a win by Willodds up to 4.00.

wales vs england Odds
Result bet365 sportingbet betfair
victory of wales 8.50 7.75 8.00
A tie 4.20 4.40 4.33
england victory 1.44 1.44 1.44
iran vs usa Odds
Result bet365 sportingbet betfair
iran victory 4.00 3.90 4.00
A tie 3.40 3.25 3.25
USA win 2.00 2.00 1.95

Favoritism does not win games

But favoritism is not always confirmed, as shown by the match between Ecuador and Senegal held today and 2 other matches on Sunday (27): the Japan was favorite against Costa Rica and most likely the Spain eliminate the powerful Germany🇧🇷

But the Japanese lost to the Costa Ricans – the biggest underdogs of the day – and squandered the chance to secure their early qualification for the round of 16. The Germans, on the other hand, drew a draw from the Spaniards at the end of the game and continue with chances to advance in the tournament.


In addition, the Morocco won from Belgium (which was a very favorite) and just the Croatia confirmed what the odds indicated for the day.

In the first round, the defeats of Argentina to the Saudi Arabia and the Germany for the Japan they were also extremely unlikely (and may have made some thrill-seekers rich).

Brazil six times champion?

Who hasn’t given chance to bad luck is the Brazilian team, which this Monday (28) defeated Switzerland by 1-0 and guaranteed its early classification in group G, helped by the tie between Serbia and Cameroon🇧🇷

O Brazil is considered not only the favorite to win its 3 games in the group stage of the Cup, but also the tournament itself, according to predictions made on the consulted betting sites. Argentina and France appear right behind, followed by Spain and England🇧🇷

Based on the country odds, the quantitative team from XP’s research area calculated the implicit probability of each selection being champion. To do so, it considered the highest available odds for a given result, which would best represent the behavior of a fan placing a bet, and converted these odds into probabilities (considering the bookmaker’s profit margin).

By this criterion, the Brazil has a 19.28% chance of winning six times, ahead of Argentina (13.34%), from France (10.84%), from Spain and the England (tied for 4th place with 9.64%). The lanterns are Costa Rica and the Saudi Arabiaeach with 0.12% (their odds are at 751).

The odds (and therefore the odds) can change because they take into account the bets being placed. The odds and percentages calculated by the XP quant area in the table below were updated on Thursday night (17th), before the start of the Cup.

Odd bet365 sportsbet odds odd betfair maximum odds implied probability
Brazil 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 19.28%
Argentina 6.5 6 6.5 6.5 13.34%
France 8 8 7.5 8 10.84%
Spain 9 9 8.5 9 9.64%
England 9 9 9 9 9.64%
Germany 11 11 12 12 7.23%
Netherlands 16 13 15 16 5.42%
Belgium 17 17 17 17 5.10%
Portugal 15 17 15 17 5.10%
Denmark 29 29 23 29 2.99%
Uruguay 41 41 41 41 2.12%
Croatia 51 41 36 51 1.70%
Serbia 81 81 91 91 0.95%
Switzerland 101 81 91 101 0.86%
Senegal 126 81 126 126 0.69%
United States 151 101 126 151 0.57%
Mexico 151 101 91 151 0.57%
Poland 151 101 176 176 0.49%
Wales 201 151 126 201 0.43%
Ecuador 151 151 251 251 0.35%
Morocco 201 251 301 301 0.29%
Cameroon 251 251 301 301 0.29%
Japan 251 251 301 301 0.29%
Canada 201 251 301 301 0.29%
Ghana 251 251 301 301 0.29%
South Korea 251 251 301 301 0.29%
Qatar 251 251 426 426 0.20%
Will 501 501 501 501 0.17%
Australia 351 401 501 501 0.17%
Tunisia 501 401 501 501 0.17%
Costa Rica 751 601 501 751 0.12%
Saudi Arabia 751 601 501 751 0.12%

sports betting houses

Sports betting is done on sites that offer money for those who hit the “kick” on the result of a game or a specific bet (it can even be the number of corners for team A or the number of fouls in a match).

It is a gigantic and poorly regulated market worldwide, which is growing at an accelerated pace in Brazil. It is estimated that there are around 450 active sports betting sites in the country currently, moving values ​​around R$ 10 billion per year🇧🇷

In order to project themselves in the market, these sites have sponsored the main championships, clubs and football players in Brazil and the world (all 20 teams in the Brazilian Championship series A are sponsored by bookmakers).

lack of regulation

The then president Michel Temer (MDB-SP) sanctioned Law 13,756 in December 2018, which authorizes the operation of sports betting sites in Brazil, but the law has not yet been regulated, which leaves the sports betting market in Brazil in a kind of “limbo”.

Thus, most of the companies that operate today in the country are based abroad, do not respond to local legislation, do not pay taxes and may also offer games of chance (such as casino) – which are illegal in Brazil and imply great risks of psychological dependence. .


Some houses offer features for their customers to bet more safely. betfair, for example, has a temporary account blocking service if a player loses money beyond a limit, and also an advice page for family and friends to recognize and deal with someone who may be addicted. Other houses have similar services.

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