Senate CCJ votes today proposal defended by Lula

The Senate should proceed with the processing of the Transition PEC, designed by the elected government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), this week. Senators are analyzing the project today (6th) at the CCJ (Commission on Constitution and Justice) and PT members are still working to try to increase support for the text in the stands.

The main objective of this Proposal for a Constitutional Amendment is to release resources for the execution of campaign promises, mainly for the recomposition of Bolsa Família. But, after all, what is this PEC?

  • It is a change in the Constitution that must be approved by a majority of Congress (congressmen and senators);
  • The PEC excludes spending on Bolsa Família of the so-called expenditure ceiling, that is, it does not enter into an expenditure limit in the country’s budget.

Is only Bolsa Família left out of the ceiling? The text can be modified until it is approved, but the original proposal, defended by Lula, provides that it is also outside the ceiling:

  • expenses with socio-environmental projects or those related to climate changewithin the scope of the Executive Branch, funded by donations
  • expenses of federal educational institutions funded by own revenues, donations or agreements entered into with other entities of the Federation or private entities

If the PEC is approved, since when does the change take effect?

  • The original text provides for change from 2023;
  • but there is a negotiation to anticipate the realization of investments beyond the expenditure limit, in case the government has registered the inflow of extraordinary revenues already in 2022

What is the path for a PEC to be approved?

  • The PEC has to be approved in the CCJ (Committee on Constitution and Justice) of the Senate for at least 14 out of 27 senators of the collegiate.
  • After this step, the text goes to the plenary of the House and it has to be analyzed in two rounds — the proposal has to be passed by 49 of 81 senators🇧🇷
  • Once the analysis is concluded by the senators, the PEC goes to the Chamber.
  • among the deputiesthe idea is to unite the text of the PEC to a project that has already gone through the CCJ of the House and the special committee, so that the text goes straight to the plenary.
  • Thus, voting will also take place in two rounds, requiring at least 308 votes out of 513 federal deputies.

What has been negotiated for the approval of the proposal?

  • So that Lula has governancemembers of the transition and allies use the PEC as a “thermometer” to measure the acceptance of the president-elect among the benches.
  • Formation of allied base PT for 2023. Without the appointment of a minister to the Civil House, responsible for the political articulation of the Executive, Lula himself and his deputy, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), entered the negotiations.
  • There is also the formation of party blocks that will compose the Board of Directors of the two Houses and the presidency of important commissions in Congress.

How will the Bolsonarist base react to the PEC? Allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are resistant to the text of the PEC and, mainly, to its processing in the House. They work to postpone the analysis of the proposal on two fronts:

  • The leader of the government in the Senate, Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ), submitted a request to the CCJ for at least one public hearing with economists to discuss the fiscal impact of the PEC
  • There is still the possibility of 24 hour view request to delay the vote on the text in committee

What are PT’s calculations? The assessment of PT members is that the proposal will be approved by the CCJ, but with difficulty.

  • In the PT account, the PEC has 16 votes in the collegiate — two more than the minimum.
  • In plenary, the estimate is 51 votes — also two more than the minimum number

Which parties signaled that vote in favor of the PEC in the Senate?

  • The PT sought support from centrist parties such as the PSD and the MDB. In the Chamber, Lula sought dialogue with the President of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL)
  • But votes are expected from senators from other parties, such as Podemos and PSDB, as they have a good relationship with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who also articulates for the approval of the text.

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