There are eight matches left for the World Cup to end: four of the quarterfinals, two semifinals and the disputes for first and third places. 56 games have already been played and if, until now, you are not well placed in the pool, you need to pay close attention to the next tips.
O R7 went to experts in calculations and statistics to help him. The observations are precious both to readers who are having a fiasco in betting and to those who, in the top positions, just want the Cup to end soon without major changes in the classification.
First, let’s keep the focus on the next four matches of the Qatar Cup, but some suggestions are also valid for the next stages. They enter the field this Friday (9), at 12h, Croatia X Brazil. On the same day, but at 16h, there is Holland X Argentina. On Saturday (10), Morocco X Portugal (12h) and England X France (16h) will play.
The professor of the mathematics department at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), Gilcione Nonato Costa, initially explains that it is always necessary to keep in mind that in every game (and in life), “the gain is proportional to the risk”.
Thus, those who are well in the standings should avoid high risks at that moment and bet only on the favorites or, in games with opponents who are technically very close, on a draw.
In the quarterfinals, there are two selections with the status of favorites: Brazil and Argentina. In the other two games, France and Portugal are better rated (but not much).
Gilcione only indicates the strategy of betting on the underdog for those who are in the last positions of the pool.
He points out, however, that spending your guesses on multiple underdogs makes no sense. “In football, despite being more frequent than in other sports, this rarely happens [de o pior vencer o favorito].” So, you who need to score well as soon as possible, choose just one zebra and cheer.
Yeah, but what score do I put?
Conrad Elber Pinheiro, engineering professor at Universidade Anhembi Morumbi, specialized in calculations and statistics, analyzed the quarterfinal games of the World Cup in Qatar taking into account data from betting pages and also the site Previsão Esportiva, which calculates the probabilities of results. matches using artificial intelligence.
He first guides conservative bettors.
“The most likely scores, in regulation time (90 minutes) for the quarterfinal games are: Netherlands Vs Argentina: 1 X 1 or 0 X 1; Croatia VS Brazil: 0 X 2 or 0 X 1; England VS France: 1 x 1; and Morocco X Portugal: 0 X 1 or 1 X 1”
In the sequence, he only talks to those desperate for points.
To the game Netherlands X Argentina, Conrad recalls that, apart from the opening match, in which they were defeated by Saudi Arabia by 2-1, the Argentines scored two goals in all games. The Netherlands also always scored. “Thus, an interesting bet for this game would be Netherlands 1 X 2 Argentina”, he opines.
Croatia X Brazil: “Of Croatia’s four games, three ended in a draw”, he recalls. “Considering that the Croatian team has a similar profile to Serbia, the most interesting bets would be 0 X 0, 1 X 1 or 2 X 2.”
England X France: the teacher recalls that England played only one game in which there was a draw and in three of them the opponent did not score goals. France won all games, but in three of them the opponent scored a goal. “Therefore, the boldest bets for England X France would be 3 X 1 or 2 X 1.”
morocco x portugal: the Moroccan team, one of the underdogs of the Cup, scored two goals twice and twice, zero. The Portugal team won the three matches in which they used their main team. “The boldest scores for Morocco X Portugal, based on the games in this Cup, would be 2 X 1, 0 X 2 or 2 X 3, says Conrad. For the conservatives, 0 X 1 or 1 X 1.
The mathematician observes that the fact that Morocco and Portugal are generally not in the quarterfinals cannot be considered with great weight in the analysis. “From a statistical point of view, comparing this game with past World Cups ends up losing relevance.”
They are more important in the statistical calculation of previous games, lineups and team quality. Not to mention that the history of the match has enormous weight and can go against the recent history of the selections.
“A team that takes a goal, two goals, can be emotionally shaken causing their performance to drop. Or the team can become more offensive in an attempt to turn the game around, making an even greater defeat more likely due to the defense being open counter-attacks”, clarifies Conrad.
Gilcione Nonato Costa, from UFMG, recalls that “the striking fact in football is that a goal is a relatively rare event”. Therefore, in general, the most likely results are scores with 0 X 0, 1 X 1, 1 X 0, 2 X 0 and 2 X 1.
Possible semifinal between Brazil and Argentina
Conrad Elber Pinheiro, who is also the creator and owner of the website and YouTube channel Professor Guru, also calculated the odds of each score in a possible Brazil-Argentina semifinal.
According to the odds provided by the website Previsão Esportiva, which uses artificial intelligence, the five most likely outcomes, and their respective probabilities of occurrence, would be:
— 1 X 1, with 12.78%;
— 1 X 0, with 10.85%;
— 0 X 1. with 9.67%;
— 2 X 1. with 8.45%;
— 0 X 0, with 8.21%.
Conrad also says that, ‘considering the analyzes carried out by several sites, there is a greater probability of Brazil winning the Cup”.
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